Earnest Graham became an instant waiver-wire gem last season once Tampa Bay’s roller-coaster feature back Carnell “Cadillac” Williams went down with a potentially career-threatening injury versus the Carolina Panthers in Week 4. Actually, in fairness, Graham opened a few eyes before Caddy went down against the Rams (Week 3), when he posted 75 yards and two touchdowns on eight carries, compared to Cadillac’s 12 carries for 46 yards and one touchdown in the same outing. That day had a lot of folks thinking “RBBC” in Tampa, something HC Jon Gruden is known for, and prompted a lot of pickups. The following week, Williams went down with a horrific leg injury, and Graham took over with a 17-carry, 48 yard, one-touchdown performance a little more than midway through the game.
Once Graham assumed sole rights to the starting running back position, he rewarded savvy fantasy owners with a pretty lucrative season, totaling 222 carries for 898 yards and 10 rushing TDs, plus an additional 324 receiving yards. However, keeper/dynasty league participants were wise to temper their enthusiasm, as Graham is entering his fifth NFL season with only 10 regular-season starts under his belt.
NFL CAREER
2004 – Active for nine regular season games. Rushed for 73 yards on 13 attempts with no touchdowns.
2005 – Active for all 16 regular season games. Rushed for 83 yards on 28 attempts with no touchdowns.
2006 – Active for all 16 regular season games. Rushed for 49 yards on 11 attempts with no touchdowns. Caught one ball for four yards and no touchdowns.
2007 – Active for 15 regular season games, starting 10. Rushed for 898 yards on 222 attempts with 10 touchdowns. Caught 49 passes for 324 yards and no touchdowns.
TEAM SCENARIO
The Buccaneers continue to be somewhat of an enigma in terms of team-direction. They’ve unceremoniously cut ties with NFL near-legends like
Simeon Rice, and reduced others like
Derrick Brooks to limited roles. The Bucs have consistently boasted one of the most formidable NFL defenses in the past decade and continue to improve and upgrade that defense through the draft and free agency. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin is widely regarded as one of the top defensive minds in the entire NFL’s history, and he remains the DC for the Bucs. It appears that the defensive personnel and scheme are well under control, and that the front office and coaching staff are on the same page in a mutually-beneficial understanding of scheme and players.
Where things get tricky for the Bucs is on offense. Head Coach Jon Gruden is famous for three things: 1) his sneer, 2) effectively managing “running back by committee” schemes, and 3) his fondness of – and success with – “castoff” quarterbacks. The Bucs were relatively busy this offseason in pretty much every capacity, but the biggest moves were undoubtedly on offense. In addition to Graham, who was re-signed to a modest and incentive-laden three-year contract, the Bucs also nabbed former Tampa Bay fan-favorite RB
Warrick Dunn, drafted rookie
Clifton Smith, signed free agent
Michael Bennett, and still have second-year pro
Kenneth Darby and former first-rounder
Cadillac Williams on the roster. At quarterback, the Bucs seem poised to continue 2008 with
Jeff Garcia under center, but also have entertained offers to
Brian Griese (since cut),
Luke McCown,
Josh Johnson, and the always controversial (internally at least)
Chris Simms. At press time, the Bucs still listed 11 wide receivers on the roster, and while some of them may not actually be part of the “official” roster, it’s just too exhausting to delve into who’s hot and who’s not at this author’s discretion, considering this is an article about a running back in the first place.
The biggest news out of Buccaneers camp is the rumor that they are making a play for perennially retired/un-retired living NFL legend quarterback
Brett Favre. Favre apparently has signed the appropriate paperwork for reinstatement, and the Packers are apparently looking to deal him. Maybe. All of this is speculative, but it’s a situation to keep a close eye on, as exhausting as it all may be.
2008 UPSIDE
The upside for Graham is simple. He recorded impressive numbers last season as a backup-turned-starter and helped out quite a few fantasy owners. Over 1,100 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns is nothing to sneeze at, considering the relative dearth of true fantasy-relevant running backs this year. He’s a hard runner who doesn’t necessarily do any one thing great, but doesn’t do anything particularly poorly, either. Given the current state of running backs in Tampa Bay, Graham should retain his job as the No. 1 running back, barring a significant setback in training camp, and similar numbers to last year aren’t totally unwarranted.
2008 DOWNSIDE
The downside for Graham is much more complicated and much more severe. As previously mentioned, the Bucs signed former fan-favorite and effective little guy
Warrick Dunn to the squad this offseason. Dunn has had durability concerns throughout his career, and he’s undersized and an “old man” by NFL standards. Nevertheless, he showed last season in Atlanta that he can still be an effective runner, at least situationally. Couple that with the fact that the Bucs have six tailbacks on their roster, and Graham has quite a bit of competition for reps. In fact, it’s been reported that Dunn is already eating into carries in offseason activities. And let’s not forget that former first-round pick
Cadillac Williams is still on the active roster, even if he’s not quite ready to take the field. A healthy Williams is a more explosive, more talented running back than Graham, and if Williams ever returns to 100 percent, he’ll likely have the inside track to the starting gig.
In addition to the unbelievable depth at running back in Tampa is the sheer instability amongst the rest of the skill positions on offense. That can severely affect the value of the starting tailback. Simply put, as long as there is unrest in the passing game, the running game will get the opposing defense’s full attention. Granted, Graham put up good digits last season, but there’s a long time between now and kickoff, and a wide-open wide receiver and quarterback battle with rumors of bringing another in signal caller does not bode well for the team’s development.
Finally, Graham is 28 years old (29 next January). He’s not necessarily old, doesn’t have a lot of “real” miles on him, and he won’t cross that dreaded 30-year mark for running backs for another year or so. Nevertheless, he’s been in the league for four seasons now and only assumed the starting gig due to an injury above him on the depth chart. Graham's contract is not indicative of a club willing to invest in him as a franchise back, nor is the signing of Dunn, nor the earlier interest in free agent
Kevin Jones. While Tampa Bay’s front office can be an enigma, they’re certainly not morons, and the competition and light contract do not inspire a lot of confidence.
OVERALL FANTASY IMPACT
Graham’s going to be a player to keep a very close watch on up until draft day. His production last season was pretty much undeniable, as he put up as good – if not better – numbers than any other Buccaneers running back in recent memory. He showed he’s capable of carrying the rock, and the Bucs decided he was worth bringing back. A repeat of last season’s numbers (and trending to a full season as the starter) would make him a RB2 at minimum. However, there are too many extenuating factors to take an early gamble on Graham. The offensive personnel instability (and presumptuous lack of premier talent elsewhere), the extreme competition and depth at RB, the abbreviated resume, and a minor but relevant health history concern leave Graham’s value worth a lot less than one would hope it to be. Unfortunately for Graham owners in keeper/dynasty leagues, there are far too many wild cards and too short a body of work to accurately predict his worth this season. So, with that, it’s best to recommend Graham as high-risk/high-reward backup who will have some fantasy value but simply cannot be counted on as a full-time starter for your squad this season.
