By Kent Wilson
March 9, 2009 11:32am CDT

A number of factors moderate a forward's point production in the NHL: coaches, strategies, line mates, ice time, strength of competition and other external variables come to mind. In addition, lady luck can have quite an effect on whether a guy is perceived as a goal scorer or checker - she appears in the form of percentages (particularly shooting percentage) and recognizing guys who are grossly under or over-performing their career percentages can help guide your trades and drafts going forward.

In addition, new ways of looking at offensive stats have been emerging lately, particularly in terms of parsing output in terms of situation (power play versus even strength for example) as well as looking at how efficiently a player produces during his ice time (rather than just his gross totals). Both help determine the contenders and pretenders when it comes to fantasy value. Standardizing a player's offensive stats at even strength by averaging his production over a constant period of time (say, 60 minutes) gives us the idea of who is making the most of his minutes and whose numbers are largely a consequence of simply playing a lot, for instance. This can be done by simply dividing a player's total ice time at even strength by 60 (or 20 or whatever number you're comfortable with) and then dividing his total even strength points by the resultant number. A good rule of thumb for forwards is two points per 60 minutes - that's about the cut-off level for effective offensive performers. Below two are your typical checkers, muckers and role players when it comes to forwards.

With those things in mind, let's get to determining which players "stocks" are currently worth buying and selling in the league (provided of course your league allows you to still trade players at this point of the season, or if you are in a keeper league).

Undervalued:

Eric Staal (32g-26a-58pts with a +4)
The Hurricanes' captain is on pace to score just 71 points this year, 11 less than last season and nearly 30 less than his 100-point sophomore effort. It's not from lack of ability or chances, however; Staal frequently plays 20 minutes a night, often against top competition. His 305 shots are second in the league to Alexander Ovechkin and 25 more than third place Zach Parise. Staal is in good company in terms of shot output and just a lackluster support group and a below career-average shooting percentage (10.5) has him lagging behind his typical point rate.

Staal has gone on a tear since the return of Erik Cole. The two seem to have a unique chemistry and Cole's re-acquisition may be the thing to jump start Staal's output once again. Expect his output to improve.

Erik Cole (17g-15a-32pts with a -1)
Things just didn't seem to work for Cole in Edmonton, especially when it was determined early on that he wasn't a fit on Edmonton's first line with Ales Hemsky. Cole spent a most of his time up North battling with inconsistency and bouncing around the lineup. Now that he's back in Carolina and reunited with Staal on the Hurricanes' top unit, Cole is back on track, recording five points in just two games since the trade. In addition, the SE division is notoriously lax defensively relative to the NW Division, so that may also act to boost his production back up to pre-Oilers levels.

Andrew Ebbett (4g-18a-22pts with a +5)
While everyone is deservedly talking about Anaheim freshman Bobby Ryan, the spotlight has thus far avoided the Ducks' other notable rookie, Andrew Ebbett. The 26-year-old late bloomer was a point-per-game player in his final year in college and during his time in the AHL and has anchored the Ducks' second scoring unit with Ryan and Teemu Selanne since being called up 32 games ago. While it's unlikely Ebbett will ever become an 80-point, first-line type of guy, he's the kind of depth forward in a deep draft that can help win a pool. He's an offensive player who gets a decent amount of even-strength and power-play time with other strong forwards; he could be a decent sleeper this offseason if the Ducks decide to run with him as the number two pivot.

Overvalued

David Krejci (21g-40a-61pts with a +33)
Few players have enjoyed the kind of jump in production that David Krejci has this year. His 61 points in 66 games is almost 40 better than the 27 he managed in 56 contests during his rookie year. That's a point-per-game jump of 0.45 to 0.92, a simply massive leap to take between seasons. Some of the improvement likely has to do with development and some is due to the improvement in the team around him. The rest, however, is fortune; Krejci's more than doubled his previous shooting percentage (8.2 percent) to 17.5 percent this year, a rate that puts him amongst the league leaders. Chances are that is a unsustainable gain for Krejci and he will fall back down to earth eventually.

Todd Bertuzzi (15g-28a-43pts with a -11)
There are those trumpeting Bertuzzi's return to form this season, but the truth of the matter is the big guy's respectable point totals in '08-'09 have more to do with playing with decent line mates and getting lots of ice time than his own performance (while they have conveniently left aside the issue of injuries striking as he is currently on the sidelines with a knee injury, the third-straight season he has missed substantial time). Bertuzzi has spent a lot of time in the Flames' potent top-six forwards, mostly with Daymond Langkow and the emergent Rene Borque, although he has also skated with Jarome Iginla and Mike Cammalleri at even strength. In addition, Mike Keenan has deployed Bertuzzi a lot with the man advantage; he has averaged more than four minutes a game on the Flames' power play, which is more than any other forward not named "Jarome Iginla".

In terms of production efficiency, Bertuzzi is just mediocre relative to the rest of the team. His 1.98 even-strength points per 60 minutes of ice places him seventh on the club amongst regular forwards, behind the likes of Bourque, Craig Conroy, Iginla, Mike Cammalleri, Curtis Glencross, Langkow and David Moss. If Keenan weren't still an unabashed Bertuzzi supporter, chances are he would have lost ice time and a top-six position at some point this season. If he leaves the Flames in the offseason, don't expect him to match these kinds of totals next year.

Loui Eriksson (32g-19a-51pts with a +12)
The young winger currently leads the Stars in scoring, almost exclusively due to an NHL-best 22 percent shooting rate. That's an astronomically high success rate for a guy who scored a combined 20 goals in his first two seasons in the league and unlikely to be sustainable going forward. Don't expect Loui Eriksson to score at a 40-goal pace next year unless he gets traded to Penguins and plays on Evgeni Malkin's wing all season.