CORY ELFRINK BLOG
To Be Or Not To Be
by Cory Elfrink
Posted 1/27/2010 2:14 PM
ESPN.com's Chris Broussard, perhaps the single-most unsubstantiated journalist covering the NBA today, put out a devastating news item late last night. Broussard claims to have spoken with numerous "front-office executives" regarding the demands of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. The current CBA will end following the 2010-2011 season.
The primary issue discussed was that owners want to drop player salaries dramatically.
"The owners are really going to chop the money down," one owner reportedly told Broussard. "I think Stoudemire would get $5 or $6 million [annually] in the next deal. The bottom line is that things are going to change dramatically."
Another told him, "Players that come up for contracts under the new CBA are going to find themselves getting a lot less money." Owners have, according to Broussard, discussed lowering the maximum length on a contract by two full years to a mere four-year deal. Also discussed is that owners want to only guarantee the first two years of a deal and the rest of the deal would only be attainable if players reached certain performance levels in the previous season.
My feelings on the new CBA and what should or shouldn't be done are rather irrelevant. However, if these statements are indeed true (and it should be noted that roughly 50% of what Broussard reports is accurate) then it could have substantial impacts on this summer's free agent crop.
For instance, there is a collection of players that hold opt-out clauses aside from James, Wade, Stoudemire, and Bosh. Those players will have to seriously consider whether getting paid big bucks next season and then facing free agency after a new CBA is in place is a better risk than opting out for a more permanent long-term deal. If salaries are genuinely going to drop by, let's say, 50%, then agents would likely encourage their clients to opt out now and get as many guaranteed dollars this summer rather than roll the dice on what the terms will be next summer (or fall or winter if there is indeed a lockout).
Who am I talking about? Dirk Nowitzki can opt out of the final year of his contract, though it pays $21.5m. Paul Pierce can do the same (same price). Yao Ming could forgo the final year and $17.7m on his current deal. Other lesser stars that hold player options in the final year of their current contract that could opt-out to sign a longer, guaranteed deal include: John Salmons, Channing Frye, Grant Hill, Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Michael Redd, Shannon Brown, Jared Jeffries, Nenad Krstic, and Joel Przybilla.
Will any of these guys sacrifice their big paychecks next season for a longer guaranteed deal? That's the question. Another one? Will owners conspire to offer little more than one or two year deals to free agents knowing that price tags for talent could dramatically decline in a year? Either way, it makes the most anticipated offseason in history even more so.
"There's going to be a lockout," one owner told Broussard. "There's not even a doubt in my mind about that. (Executive Director of the Players Association) Billy (Hunter)'s not going to make a deal like that. Teams are already saving up money for a strike."
Again, Broussard did not name any of his sources. Just as he didn't do when he told us that John Paxson was going to step down last winter, or when he told us Vinny Del Negro would be fired, or when he told us how hot the market would be for Tracy McGrady, or when he told us Monta Ellis was demanding a trade, or when he told us that the Cavaliers were "10 seconds away" from getting DeJuan Blair (though they drafted Christian Eyenga with the 30th pick instead of Blair), or when he told us Anthony Randolph would be inserted into the Warriors starting lineup in October (he registered one start then was a reserve until December 23 when injuries forced Nellie's hand), or when he said that the Trail Blazers were going to get Devin Harris from the Mavs. The list goes on.
Regardless, it does seem clear to me that there will be steep demands made over the next CBA - but there always are. Whether the rumors will spur more players to opt-out of the final years of their deals this summer is the storyline I'll be paying attention to.
Update: This whole development will also affect the NBA Draft. Expect any players leaning on the fence this summer to throw their names into the hat. That means that underclassmen who have seen their stock slide will likely still declare themselves eligible. That includes guys like: Devin Ebanks, Patrick Patterson, Willie Warren, Xavier Henry, Lance Stephenson, Malcolm Lee, Kalin Lucas, J'Covan Brown, Renardo Sidney and Manny Harris.
The primary issue discussed was that owners want to drop player salaries dramatically.
"The owners are really going to chop the money down," one owner reportedly told Broussard. "I think Stoudemire would get $5 or $6 million [annually] in the next deal. The bottom line is that things are going to change dramatically."
Another told him, "Players that come up for contracts under the new CBA are going to find themselves getting a lot less money." Owners have, according to Broussard, discussed lowering the maximum length on a contract by two full years to a mere four-year deal. Also discussed is that owners want to only guarantee the first two years of a deal and the rest of the deal would only be attainable if players reached certain performance levels in the previous season.
My feelings on the new CBA and what should or shouldn't be done are rather irrelevant. However, if these statements are indeed true (and it should be noted that roughly 50% of what Broussard reports is accurate) then it could have substantial impacts on this summer's free agent crop.
For instance, there is a collection of players that hold opt-out clauses aside from James, Wade, Stoudemire, and Bosh. Those players will have to seriously consider whether getting paid big bucks next season and then facing free agency after a new CBA is in place is a better risk than opting out for a more permanent long-term deal. If salaries are genuinely going to drop by, let's say, 50%, then agents would likely encourage their clients to opt out now and get as many guaranteed dollars this summer rather than roll the dice on what the terms will be next summer (or fall or winter if there is indeed a lockout).
Who am I talking about? Dirk Nowitzki can opt out of the final year of his contract, though it pays $21.5m. Paul Pierce can do the same (same price). Yao Ming could forgo the final year and $17.7m on his current deal. Other lesser stars that hold player options in the final year of their current contract that could opt-out to sign a longer, guaranteed deal include: John Salmons, Channing Frye, Grant Hill, Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Michael Redd, Shannon Brown, Jared Jeffries, Nenad Krstic, and Joel Przybilla.
Will any of these guys sacrifice their big paychecks next season for a longer guaranteed deal? That's the question. Another one? Will owners conspire to offer little more than one or two year deals to free agents knowing that price tags for talent could dramatically decline in a year? Either way, it makes the most anticipated offseason in history even more so.
"There's going to be a lockout," one owner told Broussard. "There's not even a doubt in my mind about that. (Executive Director of the Players Association) Billy (Hunter)'s not going to make a deal like that. Teams are already saving up money for a strike."
Again, Broussard did not name any of his sources. Just as he didn't do when he told us that John Paxson was going to step down last winter, or when he told us Vinny Del Negro would be fired, or when he told us how hot the market would be for Tracy McGrady, or when he told us Monta Ellis was demanding a trade, or when he told us that the Cavaliers were "10 seconds away" from getting DeJuan Blair (though they drafted Christian Eyenga with the 30th pick instead of Blair), or when he told us Anthony Randolph would be inserted into the Warriors starting lineup in October (he registered one start then was a reserve until December 23 when injuries forced Nellie's hand), or when he said that the Trail Blazers were going to get Devin Harris from the Mavs. The list goes on.
Regardless, it does seem clear to me that there will be steep demands made over the next CBA - but there always are. Whether the rumors will spur more players to opt-out of the final years of their deals this summer is the storyline I'll be paying attention to.
Update: This whole development will also affect the NBA Draft. Expect any players leaning on the fence this summer to throw their names into the hat. That means that underclassmen who have seen their stock slide will likely still declare themselves eligible. That includes guys like: Devin Ebanks, Patrick Patterson, Willie Warren, Xavier Henry, Lance Stephenson, Malcolm Lee, Kalin Lucas, J'Covan Brown, Renardo Sidney and Manny Harris.
Better Than Expected
by Cory Elfrink
Posted 1/26/2010 2:47 PM
Entering the NBA season, the general consensus was that this season would feature a mere five teams legitimately shooting for an NBA Finals appearance, and everyone else would just try to sell tickets. However, the competition has been better than expected and so have the ticket sales. While the numbers are down overall from a season ago, teams are for the most part beating their expectations in terms of sales for 2009-10, according to recent reports.
A lot of that has to do with the fact that the best teams are not as dominant as everyone expected they would be and there are more good teams (those over .500) this season than any one since 2004-05 (there are 17 teams over .500 this season. The last two seasons featured 14 such teams, preceded by two seasons of 13 such teams. There were 18 teams over .500 in '04-05).
The Thought-to-Be Western Conference Elite
The Lakers were expected to walk through the regular season, but they've proven to be a fairly average road team, where they are just 10-8. They are just 5-5 in their last 10 games and L.A. is starting to show vulnerability. Their 18 road games are the least amount of any team in the league…except the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs were the only team out west that was thought to be able to compete with the Lakers, but they have lost five of their last six and are in legitimate danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in Tim Duncan's career. Despite playing nine more games at home, they rank sixth in the Western Conference, just one and a half games ahead of three teams currently tied for ninth place.
The Depth of the Western Conference
Charles Barkley said the Rockets wouldn't win 25 games this season without Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and Ron Artest. They've already won 24 as GM Daryl Morey has proved to have the keenest eye for talent and Rick Adelman proves that his formula for winning transcends star-power. The Thunder have already won more games than a season ago and 21-year-old Kevin Durant has emerged as one of the best players in the game. The Grizzlies have matched their win total from a season ago and all of those lottery picks have combined with Zach Randolph to produce one of the most exciting brands of basketball in the league. They won 14 of their last 18 and are one of the hottest team's in the league.
The offseason was said to have left the Mavericks, Nuggets, and Jazz in the dust. The Jazz currently rank No. 1 on ESPN's John Hollinger's Power Rankings thanks to a dominating Carlos Boozer and revitalized Andrei Kirilenko. They've won eight of their last 10 against good competition. The Mavericks got off to a blazing start and have barely needed the services of Josh Howard (who is on the trade block along with his expiring contract). They are 7-1 in games decided by three points - the best mark in the league. The Nuggets hold the second best record out west and their 21-3 home record is second only to the 23-3 home record of the Lakers. They also hold a 17-7 mark against teams over .500, which happens to be tops in the Association. Since Chauncey Billups returned from a groin injury, the Nuggets are 8-1.
The Suns were expected to have given up on this season following the trade of Shaquille O'Neal for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic, but they got off to the best start in the league and Steve Nash is playing at his MVP level. The Hornets were left for dead after Byron Scott was fired following a 3-6 start. But coach/general manager Jeff Bower has led the team to a 21-14 record since and the Hornets are 6-1 in games decided by three points or less winning 11 of their last 15. Perhaps Bower can coach. He's also managed to pull a few shrewd trades to get the Hornets under the luxury tax - and keeps winning. Finally, the Trail Blazers have dealt with as much misfortune as any roster this season, but they stand at 27-19, proving that depth is invaluable.
The Thought-to-Be Eastern Conference Elite
The Cavaliers have rattled off 15 wins in their last 18 games and currently hold the best record in the league, despite a rough start to the season. Shaquille O'Neal has found his role with the team and they seem to be thriving. However, they are just 5-5 in close games. The Celtics are just 6-8 since Christmas with embarrassing losses to the Warriors, Clippers, and Pistons mixed in. Kevin Garnett is back and they should resume their dominance soon. Finally, the Orlando Magic have had to endure a 6-8 January as they are still searching for a consistent rotation. No one on the team is living up to preseason expectations, and they don't even rank atop their own division.
The Depth of the Eastern Conference
Sure, it's not the Western Conference, but the above heading is not the oxymoron you may think it is. The Atlanta Hawks have risen to a 29-14 record as they long-standing core seems to have finally put it all together. They actually lead the competitive Southeast Division with a 29-14 record and rank as high as fourth in multiple power rankings.
The Toronto Raptors have recovered from an 11-17 start and have won 12 of their last 17 games. Their 23-22 record is probably a good indication that Chris Bosh will not be moved prior to the trade deadline. The Miami Heat carry a 23-21 record despite not putting together a single winning streak of more than three games. The Charlotte Bobcats have gone 18-5 at home this season, but just 3-17 on the road. The result is they fell back below .500 last night but continue to look like a team that could win every home game in the playoffs - should they make it. The Bulls have pushed aside injuries and a slew of rumors to go 11-5 since the return of Tyrus Thomas. And even the Knicks have gone 14-12 since the start of December.
My Power Rankings
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (35-11)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (33-11)
3. Boston Celtics (29-13)
4. Denver Nuggets (30-14)
5. Atlanta Hawks (29-14)
6. Dallas Mavericks (29-15)
7. Utah Jazz (26-18)
8. Orlando Magic (29-16)
9. San Antonio Spurs (25-18)
10. Memphis Grizzlies (24-19)
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (24-20)
12. Phoenix Suns (26-20)
13. New Orleans Hornets (24-20)
14. Portland Trail Blazers (27-19)
15. Chicago Bulls (21-22)
16. Toronto Raptors (23-22)
17. Houston Rockets (24-20)
18. Los Angeles Clippers (20-24)
19. Miami Heat (23-21)
20. Charlotte Bobcats (21-22)
21. New York Knicks (17-26)
22. Indiana Pacers (16-29)
23. Philadelphia 76ers (15-29)
24. Washington Wizards (14-29)
25. Golden State Warriors (13-29)
26. Detroit Pistons (15-28)
27. Milwaukee Bucks (18-24)
28. Sacramento Kings (15-28)
29. Minnesota Timberwolves (9-36)
30. New Jersey Nets (3-40)
A lot of that has to do with the fact that the best teams are not as dominant as everyone expected they would be and there are more good teams (those over .500) this season than any one since 2004-05 (there are 17 teams over .500 this season. The last two seasons featured 14 such teams, preceded by two seasons of 13 such teams. There were 18 teams over .500 in '04-05).
The Thought-to-Be Western Conference Elite
The Lakers were expected to walk through the regular season, but they've proven to be a fairly average road team, where they are just 10-8. They are just 5-5 in their last 10 games and L.A. is starting to show vulnerability. Their 18 road games are the least amount of any team in the league…except the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs were the only team out west that was thought to be able to compete with the Lakers, but they have lost five of their last six and are in legitimate danger of missing the playoffs for the first time in Tim Duncan's career. Despite playing nine more games at home, they rank sixth in the Western Conference, just one and a half games ahead of three teams currently tied for ninth place.
The Depth of the Western Conference
Charles Barkley said the Rockets wouldn't win 25 games this season without Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and Ron Artest. They've already won 24 as GM Daryl Morey has proved to have the keenest eye for talent and Rick Adelman proves that his formula for winning transcends star-power. The Thunder have already won more games than a season ago and 21-year-old Kevin Durant has emerged as one of the best players in the game. The Grizzlies have matched their win total from a season ago and all of those lottery picks have combined with Zach Randolph to produce one of the most exciting brands of basketball in the league. They won 14 of their last 18 and are one of the hottest team's in the league.
The offseason was said to have left the Mavericks, Nuggets, and Jazz in the dust. The Jazz currently rank No. 1 on ESPN's John Hollinger's Power Rankings thanks to a dominating Carlos Boozer and revitalized Andrei Kirilenko. They've won eight of their last 10 against good competition. The Mavericks got off to a blazing start and have barely needed the services of Josh Howard (who is on the trade block along with his expiring contract). They are 7-1 in games decided by three points - the best mark in the league. The Nuggets hold the second best record out west and their 21-3 home record is second only to the 23-3 home record of the Lakers. They also hold a 17-7 mark against teams over .500, which happens to be tops in the Association. Since Chauncey Billups returned from a groin injury, the Nuggets are 8-1.
The Suns were expected to have given up on this season following the trade of Shaquille O'Neal for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic, but they got off to the best start in the league and Steve Nash is playing at his MVP level. The Hornets were left for dead after Byron Scott was fired following a 3-6 start. But coach/general manager Jeff Bower has led the team to a 21-14 record since and the Hornets are 6-1 in games decided by three points or less winning 11 of their last 15. Perhaps Bower can coach. He's also managed to pull a few shrewd trades to get the Hornets under the luxury tax - and keeps winning. Finally, the Trail Blazers have dealt with as much misfortune as any roster this season, but they stand at 27-19, proving that depth is invaluable.
The Thought-to-Be Eastern Conference Elite
The Cavaliers have rattled off 15 wins in their last 18 games and currently hold the best record in the league, despite a rough start to the season. Shaquille O'Neal has found his role with the team and they seem to be thriving. However, they are just 5-5 in close games. The Celtics are just 6-8 since Christmas with embarrassing losses to the Warriors, Clippers, and Pistons mixed in. Kevin Garnett is back and they should resume their dominance soon. Finally, the Orlando Magic have had to endure a 6-8 January as they are still searching for a consistent rotation. No one on the team is living up to preseason expectations, and they don't even rank atop their own division.
The Depth of the Eastern Conference
Sure, it's not the Western Conference, but the above heading is not the oxymoron you may think it is. The Atlanta Hawks have risen to a 29-14 record as they long-standing core seems to have finally put it all together. They actually lead the competitive Southeast Division with a 29-14 record and rank as high as fourth in multiple power rankings.
The Toronto Raptors have recovered from an 11-17 start and have won 12 of their last 17 games. Their 23-22 record is probably a good indication that Chris Bosh will not be moved prior to the trade deadline. The Miami Heat carry a 23-21 record despite not putting together a single winning streak of more than three games. The Charlotte Bobcats have gone 18-5 at home this season, but just 3-17 on the road. The result is they fell back below .500 last night but continue to look like a team that could win every home game in the playoffs - should they make it. The Bulls have pushed aside injuries and a slew of rumors to go 11-5 since the return of Tyrus Thomas. And even the Knicks have gone 14-12 since the start of December.
My Power Rankings
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (35-11)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (33-11)
3. Boston Celtics (29-13)
4. Denver Nuggets (30-14)
5. Atlanta Hawks (29-14)
6. Dallas Mavericks (29-15)
7. Utah Jazz (26-18)
8. Orlando Magic (29-16)
9. San Antonio Spurs (25-18)
10. Memphis Grizzlies (24-19)
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (24-20)
12. Phoenix Suns (26-20)
13. New Orleans Hornets (24-20)
14. Portland Trail Blazers (27-19)
15. Chicago Bulls (21-22)
16. Toronto Raptors (23-22)
17. Houston Rockets (24-20)
18. Los Angeles Clippers (20-24)
19. Miami Heat (23-21)
20. Charlotte Bobcats (21-22)
21. New York Knicks (17-26)
22. Indiana Pacers (16-29)
23. Philadelphia 76ers (15-29)
24. Washington Wizards (14-29)
25. Golden State Warriors (13-29)
26. Detroit Pistons (15-28)
27. Milwaukee Bucks (18-24)
28. Sacramento Kings (15-28)
29. Minnesota Timberwolves (9-36)
30. New Jersey Nets (3-40)
NBA All-Star Weekend
by Cory Elfrink
Posted 1/19/2010 5:46 PM
The All-Star starters will be announced tonight and there's a good chance that Allen Iverson and/or Tracy McGrady will be selected as starters for what is supposed to be a showcase of the best talent in the league. This, of course, is preposterous. This season, we have seen Iverson quit on the Grizzlies and return to the 76ers. He's averaged 15.1 points and 4.8 assists in 15 games with Philly. T-Mac has appeared in six games, and has played less than nine minutes in each of them. He has since abandoned the Rockets and is currently seeking out a trade. This season, McGrady is raking in $23.2 million in salary, tops in the league.
God willing, the fans will have rocked the vote over the past week and selected some true stars to replace these imposters. Ray Allen was the most vocal of players this past week to criticize the fact that fans hold 100% of the say in determining the starters. He feels the process should more closely resemble the NFL, where fans, players, and coaches are each responsible for one-third of the voting. I agree.
Here are my All-Star Rosters (in compliance with the voting ballot's position distinctions).
Eastern Conference Starters - Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Brook Lopez
Eastern Conference Reserves - Dwight Howard, Joe Johnson, Danny Granger, Antawn Jamison, Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, and Gerald Wallace.
Just missed - Andre Iguodala, Stephen Jackson, David Lee, and Mo Williams.
Western Conference Starters - Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Nene Hilario
Western Conference Reserves - Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, Carlos Boozer, Chris Kaman, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Brandon Roy.
Just missed - Deron Williams (still no All-Star Game), Chauncey Billups, Monta Ellis, Rudy Gay, Al Jefferson, and Zach Randolph (the west is best).
Rookie Challenge Rosters
Rookies - Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, Omri Casspi, Jonny Flynn, James Harden, DeJuan Blair, and Ty Lawson (they could use Blake Griffin more than the Clippers).
Sophomores - Marc Gasol, O.J. Mayo, Eric Gordon, Danilo Gallinari, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Jason Thompson, and Derrick Rose (gets the nod over Michael Beasley due to team need).
Three-point Competitors
Gallinari, Rashard Lewis, Mo Williams, Billups, Anthony Morrow, and S. Curry
The dunk contest features the first ever "Dunk-In", which will feature DeMar DeRozan and Eric Gordon going head-to-head at halftime of the Rookie Challenge. The winner will join defending champion Nate Robinson, Gerald Wallace, and Shannon Brown in the Saturday night main event.
The four guys I want to see dunk - LeBron James, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, and Tracy McGrady (want to show teams how healthy you are? Step on up.)
Skills Challenge
Rose, Nash, Paul, and T. Evans
H-O-R-S-E Competition
Durant, M. Ellis, and Nowitzki
Will Iverson and McGrady making the All-Star team as starters be the equivalent of so many teams tanking for the right to draft Hakeem Olajuwon in 1984?? The criticism of those actions was great enough that David Stern invoked the Draft Lottery. Hopefully, he'll make a change to the All-Star selection process within the near future, as well.
God willing, the fans will have rocked the vote over the past week and selected some true stars to replace these imposters. Ray Allen was the most vocal of players this past week to criticize the fact that fans hold 100% of the say in determining the starters. He feels the process should more closely resemble the NFL, where fans, players, and coaches are each responsible for one-third of the voting. I agree.
Here are my All-Star Rosters (in compliance with the voting ballot's position distinctions).
Eastern Conference Starters - Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Brook Lopez
Eastern Conference Reserves - Dwight Howard, Joe Johnson, Danny Granger, Antawn Jamison, Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, and Gerald Wallace.
Just missed - Andre Iguodala, Stephen Jackson, David Lee, and Mo Williams.
Western Conference Starters - Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Nene Hilario
Western Conference Reserves - Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, Carlos Boozer, Chris Kaman, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Brandon Roy.
Just missed - Deron Williams (still no All-Star Game), Chauncey Billups, Monta Ellis, Rudy Gay, Al Jefferson, and Zach Randolph (the west is best).
Rookie Challenge Rosters
Rookies - Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, Omri Casspi, Jonny Flynn, James Harden, DeJuan Blair, and Ty Lawson (they could use Blake Griffin more than the Clippers).
Sophomores - Marc Gasol, O.J. Mayo, Eric Gordon, Danilo Gallinari, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love, Jason Thompson, and Derrick Rose (gets the nod over Michael Beasley due to team need).
Three-point Competitors
Gallinari, Rashard Lewis, Mo Williams, Billups, Anthony Morrow, and S. Curry
The dunk contest features the first ever "Dunk-In", which will feature DeMar DeRozan and Eric Gordon going head-to-head at halftime of the Rookie Challenge. The winner will join defending champion Nate Robinson, Gerald Wallace, and Shannon Brown in the Saturday night main event.
The four guys I want to see dunk - LeBron James, Josh Smith, Andre Iguodala, and Tracy McGrady (want to show teams how healthy you are? Step on up.)
Skills Challenge
Rose, Nash, Paul, and T. Evans
H-O-R-S-E Competition
Durant, M. Ellis, and Nowitzki
Will Iverson and McGrady making the All-Star team as starters be the equivalent of so many teams tanking for the right to draft Hakeem Olajuwon in 1984?? The criticism of those actions was great enough that David Stern invoked the Draft Lottery. Hopefully, he'll make a change to the All-Star selection process within the near future, as well.
Previewing the Trade Season
by Cory Elfrink
Posted 1/12/2010 2:42 PM
With the summer of 2010 looming, trade rumors linked to the February 18 deadline have gotten off to an early and aggressive start. Let's take a look at where all 30 teams stand.
Washington Wizards - Even before Gilbert Arenas was ever busted for possession of firearms in an NBA facility, this team was among the worst in the league. The team is crossing its fingers that it will be able to void the rest of Arenas' massive contract, but they still want to cash in some of their assets. Brendan Haywood, Mike Miller, Earl Boykins, and Dominic McGuire are all expiring contracts that could offer a boost to many teams. Randy Foye is also slated to become a restricted free agent. But it is the longer and larger contracts of Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler that are being tossed around the rumor mills the most.
Detroit Pistons - The backcourt of Ben Gordon, Richard Hamilton, and Rodney Stuckey has been a disaster and the frontcourt is terrible. Charlie Villanueva has not lived up to expectations and the team has lost 13 straight games. Nobody on this team is untouchable and Joe Dumars' finger is certainly getting itchy.
Philadelphia 76ers - The Sixers are in a bad cap situation for the foreseeable future and may even offer Andre Iguodala in a package to make their financial situation more tolerable. It's unlikely Elton Brand is going anywhere.
Golden State Warriors - The Warriors seem to constantly be on the verge of blowing up their team, but rather than trading one of their younger, cheaper players, Corey Maggette's value is sharply on the rise. He is averaging 23.1 points and 6.9 rebounds in 14 starts this season and slated to make nearly $31 million over the next three seasons.
Also: Indiana Pacers (Danny Granger is the only untouchable) and Charlotte Bobcats (numerous expensive veteran contracts are more than available).
New York Knicks - The Knicks are always looking for ways to shed the contracts of Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries in order to open up more cap space for next summer. However, in order to do so, they may also have to part ways with some of their future building blocks or their own expiring contracts. Since the start of December, the team is 12-8 and a legitimate threat to make the playoffs. If the Knicks stick with their 2010 plan, playoffs this season do not matter. That would make players like David Lee, Al Harrington, and Wilson Chandler available to contenders that would also be willing to take on Jeffries while trading expiring contracts in return. If they want LeBron James, they'll have to get other big time free agents to commit as well.
Chicago Bulls - The Bulls are going through a disappointing campaign, but have gone 6-3 since Tyrus Thomas returned from a broken forearm. Thomas is not happy with his role as a reserve, and the Bulls are shopping him, as well as Kirk Hinrich. Ideally, they want to shed those contracts in time to become a major player for Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Dwyane Wade next summer.
Miami Heat - The Heat have more cap space than anyone next summer and a Wade-Bosh or Wade-Stoudemire future could seemingly be theirs if they want it. Don't expect them to make any moves to affect their cap space, but acquiring Bosh, Stoudemire, or Carlos Boozer for this season may be options.
Toronto Raptors - The team got off to a disappointing 11-17 start, but have gone 8-3 since and in the Eastern Conference that is good enough for sixth place. Still, the overwhelming feeling is that Bosh does not want to re-sign in Toronto. If a team could acquire him before the deadline, they would be able to offer him more money this summer than other teams. Are the Raptors willing to sell out in order to not let Bosh walk for free. Ideally, the Raps would want back a true center so that they could shift Andrea Bargnani to his more natural power forward position.
Houston Rockets - With Tracy McGrady's massive expiring contract, the Rockets arguably hold the most valuable trade chip. Don't expect GM Daryl Morey, one of the league's brightest, to get anything but a good deal for T-Mac. Also, expect him to wait to near the deadline to move him. That tactic could slow the rest of the trade season (more on their situation in my previous blog entry).
Sacramento Kings - The Kings have been impressive without leading scorer Kevin Martin this season and may try to move his expensive four-year contract to keep minutes open for their younger players.
Also: Phoenix Suns (Stoudemire, though a move is currently unlikely) and Los Angeles Clippers (Marcus Camby, Rasual Butler, and Craig Smith)
Utah Jazz - There's been a lot of talk that the Jazz want to get below the luxury tax, and Carlos Boozer's name continues to be shopped. The problem is that Boozer's been the best player on their 21-17 team. Paul Millsap has a long-term deal and he will likely become the starter by next season, but the Jazz may be best off keeping Boozer to compete this season. They may already be over the new salary cap for next season, so they would want only expiring or rookie contracts in return. Expect them to try and give away Kyle Korver's expiring contract just as aggressively.
New Orleans Hornets - Even after giving away Butler and Hilton Armstrong, the Hornets are still looking to shed a few bucks to get under the luxury tax. However, the next trade does not necessarily have to be a lopsided one. The problem may be that the only players that teams are interested in are David West, Darren Collison, and Chris Paul. The Hornets would like to keep each of them. West's contract is one of the best All-Star contracts in the league.
Minnesota Timberwolves - Al Jefferson was reportedly offered for Danny Granger last week, but the deal was shot down. The T-Wolves dispute the offer was ever made and also say there is no animosity between Jefferson and Kevin Love, two similar players. The team has over $25 million in expiring deals and seem more likely to move those for players signed more long term as they will have a very difficult time attracting free agents next summer.
New Jersey Nets - The Nets are positioned to bring in a maximum contract player this summer, but recently said they don't want to end up like the Pistons and spend money just because they have it. They may be willing to part with some young players, including Devin Harris, and expiring contracts in order to bring in a player long-term before the deadline.
Also: Memphis Grizzlies
Best players who could be dealt for little more than expiring contracts: Iguodala, Kev. Martin, Maggette, D. West, R. Hamilton, and T. Prince.
Cleveland Cavaliers - Zydrunas Ilgauskas is a hot name in the rumor mills right now as he carries an $11.5 million expiring contract. However, the Cavs may think twice as Big Z has played well this season and proven an invaluable complement to Shaquille O'Neal.
Portland Trail Blazers - Andre Miller has proven to be a poor fit with his new team, although his production is up of late. The team desperately needs a center following the season-ending injuries to Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla.
Also: Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs, Dallas Mavericks, and Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, and Milwaukee Bucks.
Tracy McGrady ($23.3m Expiring Contract) for Jared Jeffries, Wilson Chandler, David Lee ($7m EC) and Cuttino Mobley ($9.5m EC which is currently paid by an insurance company due to a health clause). Houston gets their type of players and become legit contenders this year. The Knicks open up the cap space needed to add two max contract players or at least multiple starters next season.
Chris Bosh ($15.8 EC) for Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas (restricted free agent next summer), and John Salmons - The Bulls desperately want Bosh and landing him now would allow them to offer him more money than any other team next summer. They would start Brad Miller at center for the rest of the season. The Raptors would get an impressive haul in return, and each player is signed to a reasonable deal. They could also let Thomas walk this summer, but may need to throw in a pick to get this deal done. It's better than letting Bosh walk for nothing.
Antawn Jamison for Zydrunas Ilgauskas ($11.5m EC) - The Wizards want to shave some salary and the Cavs want to win a championship. But does this make the Cavs better? Probably, but Shaq hasn't played 30 minutes in a game since November 5. This deal would be sweetened if the Wizards could buy out Big Z for less than he's owed and then re-sign with the Cavs at least a month before the playoffs.
Andre Iguodala and Jason Kapono for Richard Jefferson and Roger Mason ($3.8m EC) - The Sixers are in an awful financial spot. Iguodala has $56.5 million left on his contract after this season compared to just $15 million (one year) left on Jefferson's. Throwing Kapono in for Mason would save the Sixers an additional $6.6 million. I love the idea of Iggy-Hop in a Spurs uni for the next five seasons. He provides a more consistent killer instinct and would soften the possible loss of Ginobili this summer. However, the Spurs have rarely made an in-season trade.
Tayshaun Prince or Richard Hamilton for Josh Howard ($11.8m team option next season). I'm not sure if the 25-12 Mavericks would want to improve their offense or defense, but Prince has another edge over Hamilton - his contract is two years shorter. Howard has been dinged up all season (17 games played) and doesn't seem to have a spot in the starting lineup. Hamilton would, though Prince would likely become more of a defensive presence off the bench - one capable of guarding (to an extent) the likes of Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, Manu Ginobili, and Kevin Durant.
Let's Blow This Up
Washington Wizards - Even before Gilbert Arenas was ever busted for possession of firearms in an NBA facility, this team was among the worst in the league. The team is crossing its fingers that it will be able to void the rest of Arenas' massive contract, but they still want to cash in some of their assets. Brendan Haywood, Mike Miller, Earl Boykins, and Dominic McGuire are all expiring contracts that could offer a boost to many teams. Randy Foye is also slated to become a restricted free agent. But it is the longer and larger contracts of Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler that are being tossed around the rumor mills the most.
Detroit Pistons - The backcourt of Ben Gordon, Richard Hamilton, and Rodney Stuckey has been a disaster and the frontcourt is terrible. Charlie Villanueva has not lived up to expectations and the team has lost 13 straight games. Nobody on this team is untouchable and Joe Dumars' finger is certainly getting itchy.
Philadelphia 76ers - The Sixers are in a bad cap situation for the foreseeable future and may even offer Andre Iguodala in a package to make their financial situation more tolerable. It's unlikely Elton Brand is going anywhere.
Golden State Warriors - The Warriors seem to constantly be on the verge of blowing up their team, but rather than trading one of their younger, cheaper players, Corey Maggette's value is sharply on the rise. He is averaging 23.1 points and 6.9 rebounds in 14 starts this season and slated to make nearly $31 million over the next three seasons.
Also: Indiana Pacers (Danny Granger is the only untouchable) and Charlotte Bobcats (numerous expensive veteran contracts are more than available).
Eyes on 2010
New York Knicks - The Knicks are always looking for ways to shed the contracts of Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries in order to open up more cap space for next summer. However, in order to do so, they may also have to part ways with some of their future building blocks or their own expiring contracts. Since the start of December, the team is 12-8 and a legitimate threat to make the playoffs. If the Knicks stick with their 2010 plan, playoffs this season do not matter. That would make players like David Lee, Al Harrington, and Wilson Chandler available to contenders that would also be willing to take on Jeffries while trading expiring contracts in return. If they want LeBron James, they'll have to get other big time free agents to commit as well.
Chicago Bulls - The Bulls are going through a disappointing campaign, but have gone 6-3 since Tyrus Thomas returned from a broken forearm. Thomas is not happy with his role as a reserve, and the Bulls are shopping him, as well as Kirk Hinrich. Ideally, they want to shed those contracts in time to become a major player for Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemire, and Dwyane Wade next summer.
Miami Heat - The Heat have more cap space than anyone next summer and a Wade-Bosh or Wade-Stoudemire future could seemingly be theirs if they want it. Don't expect them to make any moves to affect their cap space, but acquiring Bosh, Stoudemire, or Carlos Boozer for this season may be options.
Let's Get Something While We Can
Toronto Raptors - The team got off to a disappointing 11-17 start, but have gone 8-3 since and in the Eastern Conference that is good enough for sixth place. Still, the overwhelming feeling is that Bosh does not want to re-sign in Toronto. If a team could acquire him before the deadline, they would be able to offer him more money this summer than other teams. Are the Raptors willing to sell out in order to not let Bosh walk for free. Ideally, the Raps would want back a true center so that they could shift Andrea Bargnani to his more natural power forward position.
Houston Rockets - With Tracy McGrady's massive expiring contract, the Rockets arguably hold the most valuable trade chip. Don't expect GM Daryl Morey, one of the league's brightest, to get anything but a good deal for T-Mac. Also, expect him to wait to near the deadline to move him. That tactic could slow the rest of the trade season (more on their situation in my previous blog entry).
Sacramento Kings - The Kings have been impressive without leading scorer Kevin Martin this season and may try to move his expensive four-year contract to keep minutes open for their younger players.
Also: Phoenix Suns (Stoudemire, though a move is currently unlikely) and Los Angeles Clippers (Marcus Camby, Rasual Butler, and Craig Smith)
Seeking Financial Relief
Utah Jazz - There's been a lot of talk that the Jazz want to get below the luxury tax, and Carlos Boozer's name continues to be shopped. The problem is that Boozer's been the best player on their 21-17 team. Paul Millsap has a long-term deal and he will likely become the starter by next season, but the Jazz may be best off keeping Boozer to compete this season. They may already be over the new salary cap for next season, so they would want only expiring or rookie contracts in return. Expect them to try and give away Kyle Korver's expiring contract just as aggressively.
New Orleans Hornets - Even after giving away Butler and Hilton Armstrong, the Hornets are still looking to shed a few bucks to get under the luxury tax. However, the next trade does not necessarily have to be a lopsided one. The problem may be that the only players that teams are interested in are David West, Darren Collison, and Chris Paul. The Hornets would like to keep each of them. West's contract is one of the best All-Star contracts in the league.
We Can Provide Financial Relief…for the Right Price
Minnesota Timberwolves - Al Jefferson was reportedly offered for Danny Granger last week, but the deal was shot down. The T-Wolves dispute the offer was ever made and also say there is no animosity between Jefferson and Kevin Love, two similar players. The team has over $25 million in expiring deals and seem more likely to move those for players signed more long term as they will have a very difficult time attracting free agents next summer.
New Jersey Nets - The Nets are positioned to bring in a maximum contract player this summer, but recently said they don't want to end up like the Pistons and spend money just because they have it. They may be willing to part with some young players, including Devin Harris, and expiring contracts in order to bring in a player long-term before the deadline.
Also: Memphis Grizzlies
Best players who could be dealt for little more than expiring contracts: Iguodala, Kev. Martin, Maggette, D. West, R. Hamilton, and T. Prince.
Looking to Improve Immediate Championship Odds
Cleveland Cavaliers - Zydrunas Ilgauskas is a hot name in the rumor mills right now as he carries an $11.5 million expiring contract. However, the Cavs may think twice as Big Z has played well this season and proven an invaluable complement to Shaquille O'Neal.
Portland Trail Blazers - Andre Miller has proven to be a poor fit with his new team, although his production is up of late. The team desperately needs a center following the season-ending injuries to Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla.
Also: Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs, Dallas Mavericks, and Denver Nuggets
Most Content Teams
Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, and Milwaukee Bucks.
Five Trades I Would Love to See
Tracy McGrady ($23.3m Expiring Contract) for Jared Jeffries, Wilson Chandler, David Lee ($7m EC) and Cuttino Mobley ($9.5m EC which is currently paid by an insurance company due to a health clause). Houston gets their type of players and become legit contenders this year. The Knicks open up the cap space needed to add two max contract players or at least multiple starters next season.
Chris Bosh ($15.8 EC) for Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas (restricted free agent next summer), and John Salmons - The Bulls desperately want Bosh and landing him now would allow them to offer him more money than any other team next summer. They would start Brad Miller at center for the rest of the season. The Raptors would get an impressive haul in return, and each player is signed to a reasonable deal. They could also let Thomas walk this summer, but may need to throw in a pick to get this deal done. It's better than letting Bosh walk for nothing.
Antawn Jamison for Zydrunas Ilgauskas ($11.5m EC) - The Wizards want to shave some salary and the Cavs want to win a championship. But does this make the Cavs better? Probably, but Shaq hasn't played 30 minutes in a game since November 5. This deal would be sweetened if the Wizards could buy out Big Z for less than he's owed and then re-sign with the Cavs at least a month before the playoffs.
Andre Iguodala and Jason Kapono for Richard Jefferson and Roger Mason ($3.8m EC) - The Sixers are in an awful financial spot. Iguodala has $56.5 million left on his contract after this season compared to just $15 million (one year) left on Jefferson's. Throwing Kapono in for Mason would save the Sixers an additional $6.6 million. I love the idea of Iggy-Hop in a Spurs uni for the next five seasons. He provides a more consistent killer instinct and would soften the possible loss of Ginobili this summer. However, the Spurs have rarely made an in-season trade.
Tayshaun Prince or Richard Hamilton for Josh Howard ($11.8m team option next season). I'm not sure if the 25-12 Mavericks would want to improve their offense or defense, but Prince has another edge over Hamilton - his contract is two years shorter. Howard has been dinged up all season (17 games played) and doesn't seem to have a spot in the starting lineup. Hamilton would, though Prince would likely become more of a defensive presence off the bench - one capable of guarding (to an extent) the likes of Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony, Manu Ginobili, and Kevin Durant.
T-Mac and King James
by Cory Elfrink
Posted 12/29/2009 12:27 PM
The Rockets and Tracy McGrady's representatives agreed to mutually look for a trade yesterday and the former star has been granted an indefinite leave of absence from the team. Of course, T-Mac is the highest paid player in the league this season as he is raking in $23.2 million in a contract that is due to expire in April.
The Rockets are currently seventh in the Western Conference with a record of 18-13. Yao Ming will not be back this season and one has to wonder if Rockets GM Daryl Morey, whom I've discussed extensively in this blog space before, truly believes he can compete for a championship this season. My educated guess is that he does not. Is there a combination of players he could get in return for McGrady that will make his team competitive with the Lakers, Nuggets, Mavericks, Celtics, Cavaliers, and Magic? Not likely.
So what would the Rockets want in return for a $23.2 million expiring deal? Morey would want his type of players (good character guys that create scoring opportunities with efficient defense, rebounding, and passing) signed for cheap (likely still in their rookie contracts) combined with other expiring contracts. What are some options?
Knicks - Give up Jared Jeffries, Wilson Chandler, David Lee ($7m EC) and Cuttino Mobley ($9.5m EC which is currently paid by an insurance company due to a health clause) for McGrady. How bad do the Knicks want to move Jeffries? As their currently constituted, the Knicks could make the playoffs this season. But with this deal, they shed Jeffries' $6.9 million contract from next season's payroll, giving them a realistic shot at two max free agents this summer. Of course, Chandler was supposed to be part of their sales pitch and is signed cheaply through 2012. Also, the move would force them to play Eddy Curry in place of Lee this season and it should be noted that Jeffries fits the Rockets' scheme much better than he does the Knicks. Finally, this would actually make the Rockets a very serious playoff threat this year.
Hornets - Give up David West, Peja Stojakovic, and Darius Songaila for T-Mac, Luis Scola ($3.3m EC), and Brian Cook ($3.5 EC) or Chris Paul, Peja, Songaila, for Aaron Brooks, a draft pick, and the previous three Rockets players. The Hornets are currently $5 million over the luxury tax and set to pay even more than that next season. Not to mention they're not competing and are getting killed at the gate. Perhaps more than any other team, they're looking to dump cap. However, no one wants Peja's deal, and the only way they could get rid of him would be to include Paul (or maybe West). By doing the second deal, the Hornets would save over $40 million next season!! Is that enough to deal away the best point guard in the league? The savings would allow them to spend wisely next summer to surround Emeka Okafor, West, and Brooks while the Rockets would be locked out of the free agent sweepstakes.
Bulls - Give up Tyrus Thomas, Aaron Gray, Taj Gibson, and Brad Miller ($12.25m expiring contract) for McGrady. For the Rockets, they get three players still in their rookie contracts and retain 50% of T-Mac's expiring contract by getting Miller (who could slide into center for them this season). The rookies play the style that Morey prefers, and Thomas could replace Luis Scola if he were to leave in free agency next summer. Of course, this deal would leave the Bulls with only rookie James Johnson at power forward, but would allow them to aggressively pursue free agents in the offseason.
Nets - Give up Yi Jianlian, Courtney Lee, Bobby Simmons ($10.6m EC), and Tony Battie ($6.3m EC) for McGrady. The Nets don't gain much from this. They already have a load of cap room this summer, and losing Yi and Lee would only save them $5.4 million. The trade would still work without one of those two in the deal.
Kings - Give up Kevin Martin, Spencer Hawes, and Kenny Thomas ($8.8m EC) for McGrady. These aren't exactly the types of players Morey usually seeks out. Martin is signed long-term and has proven brittle. He would be more interested if the Rockets could possibly acquire Jason Thompson or Omri Casspi, something the Kings probably wouldn't consider.
76ers - Give up Andre Iguodala, Marreese Speights, and Jason Kapono for McGrady. The Sixers are in a horrible cap situation thanks both to Elton Brand's huge deal and Iguodala making $68.8 million through 2014. How bad do they want out of it? This deal would also work with Brand in place of Iguodala. It's up for debate if Morey would want either of those two players given their contracts. I doubt he would be interested.
Cavaliers - Give up Shaquille O'Neal ($21m EC) and J.J. Hickson for McGrady. The Cavs likely feel that Shaq's playoff presence is substantially more valuable than T-Mac's.
But wait. We haven't heard much about it, but the Rockets are a contender for LeBron James next summer if they hold onto T-Mac's expiring deal. And look at what they have to offer:
1. Yao Ming is the best center in the game when healthy and is just 29.
2. Aaron Brooks is a lot like Mo Williams, and would certainly allow James to play the point forward position.
3. The team is loaded with young, unselfish role players who play strong defense and know how to rebound.
4. They are poised to have an enormous amount of cap space in 2011, even if they sign James. Of course, they would likely re-sign Ming if he proves worthy, but they could also be strong contenders for Carmelo Anthony, Tony Parker, Troy Murphy, Zach Randolph, and a host of talented restricted free agents.
As long as the Rockets simply hold onto McGrady's deal, they could be in play for James (and other high-profile free agents). They have a proven coach (Rick Adelman) and an up-tempo offense. The owner spends wisely, the team is mostly young, talented, and unselfish, and they play in one of the top five to ten metropolitan areas in the United States (depending on who you ask).
Whatever happens or doesn't happen with McGrady, a player in steep decline that is no longer personally capable of being a top option for a good team, could have significant league-wide implications.
The Rockets are currently seventh in the Western Conference with a record of 18-13. Yao Ming will not be back this season and one has to wonder if Rockets GM Daryl Morey, whom I've discussed extensively in this blog space before, truly believes he can compete for a championship this season. My educated guess is that he does not. Is there a combination of players he could get in return for McGrady that will make his team competitive with the Lakers, Nuggets, Mavericks, Celtics, Cavaliers, and Magic? Not likely.
So what would the Rockets want in return for a $23.2 million expiring deal? Morey would want his type of players (good character guys that create scoring opportunities with efficient defense, rebounding, and passing) signed for cheap (likely still in their rookie contracts) combined with other expiring contracts. What are some options?
Knicks - Give up Jared Jeffries, Wilson Chandler, David Lee ($7m EC) and Cuttino Mobley ($9.5m EC which is currently paid by an insurance company due to a health clause) for McGrady. How bad do the Knicks want to move Jeffries? As their currently constituted, the Knicks could make the playoffs this season. But with this deal, they shed Jeffries' $6.9 million contract from next season's payroll, giving them a realistic shot at two max free agents this summer. Of course, Chandler was supposed to be part of their sales pitch and is signed cheaply through 2012. Also, the move would force them to play Eddy Curry in place of Lee this season and it should be noted that Jeffries fits the Rockets' scheme much better than he does the Knicks. Finally, this would actually make the Rockets a very serious playoff threat this year.
Hornets - Give up David West, Peja Stojakovic, and Darius Songaila for T-Mac, Luis Scola ($3.3m EC), and Brian Cook ($3.5 EC) or Chris Paul, Peja, Songaila, for Aaron Brooks, a draft pick, and the previous three Rockets players. The Hornets are currently $5 million over the luxury tax and set to pay even more than that next season. Not to mention they're not competing and are getting killed at the gate. Perhaps more than any other team, they're looking to dump cap. However, no one wants Peja's deal, and the only way they could get rid of him would be to include Paul (or maybe West). By doing the second deal, the Hornets would save over $40 million next season!! Is that enough to deal away the best point guard in the league? The savings would allow them to spend wisely next summer to surround Emeka Okafor, West, and Brooks while the Rockets would be locked out of the free agent sweepstakes.
Bulls - Give up Tyrus Thomas, Aaron Gray, Taj Gibson, and Brad Miller ($12.25m expiring contract) for McGrady. For the Rockets, they get three players still in their rookie contracts and retain 50% of T-Mac's expiring contract by getting Miller (who could slide into center for them this season). The rookies play the style that Morey prefers, and Thomas could replace Luis Scola if he were to leave in free agency next summer. Of course, this deal would leave the Bulls with only rookie James Johnson at power forward, but would allow them to aggressively pursue free agents in the offseason.
Nets - Give up Yi Jianlian, Courtney Lee, Bobby Simmons ($10.6m EC), and Tony Battie ($6.3m EC) for McGrady. The Nets don't gain much from this. They already have a load of cap room this summer, and losing Yi and Lee would only save them $5.4 million. The trade would still work without one of those two in the deal.
Kings - Give up Kevin Martin, Spencer Hawes, and Kenny Thomas ($8.8m EC) for McGrady. These aren't exactly the types of players Morey usually seeks out. Martin is signed long-term and has proven brittle. He would be more interested if the Rockets could possibly acquire Jason Thompson or Omri Casspi, something the Kings probably wouldn't consider.
76ers - Give up Andre Iguodala, Marreese Speights, and Jason Kapono for McGrady. The Sixers are in a horrible cap situation thanks both to Elton Brand's huge deal and Iguodala making $68.8 million through 2014. How bad do they want out of it? This deal would also work with Brand in place of Iguodala. It's up for debate if Morey would want either of those two players given their contracts. I doubt he would be interested.
Cavaliers - Give up Shaquille O'Neal ($21m EC) and J.J. Hickson for McGrady. The Cavs likely feel that Shaq's playoff presence is substantially more valuable than T-Mac's.
But wait. We haven't heard much about it, but the Rockets are a contender for LeBron James next summer if they hold onto T-Mac's expiring deal. And look at what they have to offer:
1. Yao Ming is the best center in the game when healthy and is just 29.
2. Aaron Brooks is a lot like Mo Williams, and would certainly allow James to play the point forward position.
3. The team is loaded with young, unselfish role players who play strong defense and know how to rebound.
4. They are poised to have an enormous amount of cap space in 2011, even if they sign James. Of course, they would likely re-sign Ming if he proves worthy, but they could also be strong contenders for Carmelo Anthony, Tony Parker, Troy Murphy, Zach Randolph, and a host of talented restricted free agents.
As long as the Rockets simply hold onto McGrady's deal, they could be in play for James (and other high-profile free agents). They have a proven coach (Rick Adelman) and an up-tempo offense. The owner spends wisely, the team is mostly young, talented, and unselfish, and they play in one of the top five to ten metropolitan areas in the United States (depending on who you ask).
Whatever happens or doesn't happen with McGrady, a player in steep decline that is no longer personally capable of being a top option for a good team, could have significant league-wide implications.
Is Del Negro the Problem?
by Cory Elfrink
Posted 12/22/2009 1:41 PM
There has been a lot of talk over the past two weeks that Vinny Del Negro is on the hot seat and as the losses continue to pile up for the Bulls, the pressure is building. Last night the team blew a 35-point lead at home to the Kings and was booed loudly in the final minute and after the game. More people than ever are calling for VDN's head to roll, despite nearly leading the Bulls to the second round in a historic series against the Celtics in last spring's playoffs.
The Bulls are currently 10-16, 8-6 at home, and 2-10 on the road. They went 1-5 on their annual "Circus Road Trip" through the Western Conference. In the weak Eastern Conference, they're actually just a half-game out of the playoffs. That's not too bad considering they have played all but four of their games without their starting power forward, Tyrus Thomas. Rookie Taj Gibson has gotten most of the starts, but center Brad Miller has recently taken his spot. Thomas is due to return this weekend, but the Bulls have played almost the entire season without an adequate power forward. So how much of their struggle can be blamed on Del Negro? More importantly, how is GM John Paxson, who was on the hot seat a year ago at this time, not held accountable for their shallow roster?
Paxson took over the team in April of 2003, and his team has finished over .500 just twice in the six full seasons since. He is on his fifth head coach and actually fired Scott Skiles in the same calendar year that he took the young team within two games of the Eastern Conference Finals. He was 146-125 in three-plus seasons with the Bulls. Skiles is now leading the Bucks and has their mostly no-name roster at 12-14 and two full games ahead of the Bulls, despite losing Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, and Ramon Sessions last summer and playing most of the year without Michael Redd. Skiles' team has taken the Lakers, Mavericks, and Hornets into overtime (suffered three losses), played the Magic and Cavs within three points in regulation, and defeated the Nuggets this season. He has also helped develop Brandon Jennings into a force more powerful than Derrick Rose in just a couple dozen games. The hapless Bucks are a few calls away from being 17-9 thanks to their coach. Firing Skiles - big mistake, Paxson.
Back to the Bulls. Their weakness throughout all of Paxson's tenure has been frontcourt offense. Yet, Paxson dealt LaMarcus Aldridge, a 6-10 man with a silky jumper and developed post game, for Tyrus Thomas, a wiry freak of an athlete with no offensive game to speak of, back on draft day 2006. Trading Aldridge for Thomas - big mistake, Paxson.
Two winters back, the Memphis Grizzlies were shopping Pau Gasol. They came first to the Bulls. They were seeking Andres Nocioni, Thomas, and either Joakim Noah or Thabo Sefolosha - for Pau Gasol. But Paxson did not want to part with the young core that had helped take the Bulls to the EC Semis the year before (though he was very quick to part with the coach). He won 50, 45, and 49 games in his last three full seasons with the Griz and holds two gold medals and three silvers. Recently, both Magic Johnson and Kobe Bryant called Pau the best big man in the game. Think of Gasol on the Bulls this season. They would have still gotten Rose, which was the Knicks pick which they acquired in the Eddy Curry trade. Not parting with three average players for Pau Gasol - big mistake, Paxson.
Paxson was also guilty of one of the worst signings of the decade - his four-year, $60 million pact with Ben Wallace. Wallace's production collapsed with the Bulls, and not only was he not worth $15 million per season, but he was barely worth half of that. The next offseason, he inked Luol Deng to a six-year, $71 million deal, worth as much as $80 million with incentives. Deng has not been the same player since and plays a position in which the league is deepest in talent. Signing Ben Wallace and Luol Deng to a combined 10 years and $140 million - big mistake, Paxson.
This summer, there were legs to a three-team deal involving the Bulls, Jazz, and Trail Blazers. At the center of the deal, Paxson would send Thomas to the Jazz and Kirk Hinrich to the Trail Blazers in return for Carlos Boozer. It was Paxson who called the deal off, according to ESPN.com. Of course, Boozer, a two-time All-Star, is averaging 19.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while hitting 54.5 percent of his shots. That type of post offense would look real good on the Bulls right now. Paxson backed out for two primary reasons. Boozer would be a free agent at the end of the season and had an injury history. Of course, Tyrus is a restricted free agent at the end of the season and has missed 22 games. Boozer has played in every game. Passing on a deal to land Boozer last summer - big mistake, Paxson.
Then there's the question of the 2008 Draft. Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley were the unquestioned top two picks of the draft. Nobody else was in the conversation. Paxson decided early on that Rose was his guy despite the fact that point guard Hinrich held a long-term deal that paid him a starter's salary and the team still severely lacked front court offense, which Beasley excelled at. Of course, Rose won Rookie of the Year, although I personally thought O.J. Mayo and Brook Lopez were much more impressive. Fantasy-wise, Rose was just the fifth best rookie. Meanwhile, Beasley came off the bench all season behind Udonis Haslem and played 12 minutes per game less. Still, he was the second-leading scorer on the Heat and led all rookies in scoring per minute. Beasley also ranked third among rookies in Player Efficiency Rating among rookies who played at least 1,400 minutes. Kevin Love was first, Lopez was second, and Rose was fifth. This season, Beasley is fifth among second-year players (while playing significantly more minutes). Rose's PER has actually dipped, and he ranks ninth among his peers. Fantasy-wise, Beasley is eighth among sophomores (76th overall). Rose isn't even among the top 20 (148th overall). Rose's assists are down, turnovers up, shooting down, and after reportedly shooting 1,000 jumpers per day all summer, he's hit just one three-pointer through 26 games.
Am I saying Paxson should have taken Beasley over Rose? Yeah, I am. He would have made the team better than a point guard with a weak jumper and a penchant to score. Paxson already had a point guard and needed a frontcourt scorer. And in case you haven't guessed, I'm saying Rose is overrated. I won't call it a strike against Paxson yet, because so many people think Rose is still very good (despite being outplayed by a host of other PGs, including rookies).
Paxson's done some very good things also. He managed to trade away Wallace and Curry and also orchestrated a string of positive trades at last season's deadline. He drafted Ben Gordon third overall. The Bulls are also in a very good financial situation for the next two summers. Then again, he also traded Tyson Chandler for J.R. Smith and P.J. Brown, then gave Smith to the Nuggets for Howard Eisley.
But those positives don't make up for the negatives. Firing Skiles, inking bad contracts, and repeatedly passing on front court scorers - Aldridge, Pau, Boozer, and even Beasley - are the benchmarks of Paxson's reign. If you're looking for a change in Chicago, don't point at the guy that took the Bulls back to the playoffs in his first season. Look no further than John Paxson.
The Bulls are currently 10-16, 8-6 at home, and 2-10 on the road. They went 1-5 on their annual "Circus Road Trip" through the Western Conference. In the weak Eastern Conference, they're actually just a half-game out of the playoffs. That's not too bad considering they have played all but four of their games without their starting power forward, Tyrus Thomas. Rookie Taj Gibson has gotten most of the starts, but center Brad Miller has recently taken his spot. Thomas is due to return this weekend, but the Bulls have played almost the entire season without an adequate power forward. So how much of their struggle can be blamed on Del Negro? More importantly, how is GM John Paxson, who was on the hot seat a year ago at this time, not held accountable for their shallow roster?
Paxson took over the team in April of 2003, and his team has finished over .500 just twice in the six full seasons since. He is on his fifth head coach and actually fired Scott Skiles in the same calendar year that he took the young team within two games of the Eastern Conference Finals. He was 146-125 in three-plus seasons with the Bulls. Skiles is now leading the Bucks and has their mostly no-name roster at 12-14 and two full games ahead of the Bulls, despite losing Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, and Ramon Sessions last summer and playing most of the year without Michael Redd. Skiles' team has taken the Lakers, Mavericks, and Hornets into overtime (suffered three losses), played the Magic and Cavs within three points in regulation, and defeated the Nuggets this season. He has also helped develop Brandon Jennings into a force more powerful than Derrick Rose in just a couple dozen games. The hapless Bucks are a few calls away from being 17-9 thanks to their coach. Firing Skiles - big mistake, Paxson.
Back to the Bulls. Their weakness throughout all of Paxson's tenure has been frontcourt offense. Yet, Paxson dealt LaMarcus Aldridge, a 6-10 man with a silky jumper and developed post game, for Tyrus Thomas, a wiry freak of an athlete with no offensive game to speak of, back on draft day 2006. Trading Aldridge for Thomas - big mistake, Paxson.
Two winters back, the Memphis Grizzlies were shopping Pau Gasol. They came first to the Bulls. They were seeking Andres Nocioni, Thomas, and either Joakim Noah or Thabo Sefolosha - for Pau Gasol. But Paxson did not want to part with the young core that had helped take the Bulls to the EC Semis the year before (though he was very quick to part with the coach). He won 50, 45, and 49 games in his last three full seasons with the Griz and holds two gold medals and three silvers. Recently, both Magic Johnson and Kobe Bryant called Pau the best big man in the game. Think of Gasol on the Bulls this season. They would have still gotten Rose, which was the Knicks pick which they acquired in the Eddy Curry trade. Not parting with three average players for Pau Gasol - big mistake, Paxson.
Paxson was also guilty of one of the worst signings of the decade - his four-year, $60 million pact with Ben Wallace. Wallace's production collapsed with the Bulls, and not only was he not worth $15 million per season, but he was barely worth half of that. The next offseason, he inked Luol Deng to a six-year, $71 million deal, worth as much as $80 million with incentives. Deng has not been the same player since and plays a position in which the league is deepest in talent. Signing Ben Wallace and Luol Deng to a combined 10 years and $140 million - big mistake, Paxson.
This summer, there were legs to a three-team deal involving the Bulls, Jazz, and Trail Blazers. At the center of the deal, Paxson would send Thomas to the Jazz and Kirk Hinrich to the Trail Blazers in return for Carlos Boozer. It was Paxson who called the deal off, according to ESPN.com. Of course, Boozer, a two-time All-Star, is averaging 19.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists while hitting 54.5 percent of his shots. That type of post offense would look real good on the Bulls right now. Paxson backed out for two primary reasons. Boozer would be a free agent at the end of the season and had an injury history. Of course, Tyrus is a restricted free agent at the end of the season and has missed 22 games. Boozer has played in every game. Passing on a deal to land Boozer last summer - big mistake, Paxson.
Then there's the question of the 2008 Draft. Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley were the unquestioned top two picks of the draft. Nobody else was in the conversation. Paxson decided early on that Rose was his guy despite the fact that point guard Hinrich held a long-term deal that paid him a starter's salary and the team still severely lacked front court offense, which Beasley excelled at. Of course, Rose won Rookie of the Year, although I personally thought O.J. Mayo and Brook Lopez were much more impressive. Fantasy-wise, Rose was just the fifth best rookie. Meanwhile, Beasley came off the bench all season behind Udonis Haslem and played 12 minutes per game less. Still, he was the second-leading scorer on the Heat and led all rookies in scoring per minute. Beasley also ranked third among rookies in Player Efficiency Rating among rookies who played at least 1,400 minutes. Kevin Love was first, Lopez was second, and Rose was fifth. This season, Beasley is fifth among second-year players (while playing significantly more minutes). Rose's PER has actually dipped, and he ranks ninth among his peers. Fantasy-wise, Beasley is eighth among sophomores (76th overall). Rose isn't even among the top 20 (148th overall). Rose's assists are down, turnovers up, shooting down, and after reportedly shooting 1,000 jumpers per day all summer, he's hit just one three-pointer through 26 games.
Am I saying Paxson should have taken Beasley over Rose? Yeah, I am. He would have made the team better than a point guard with a weak jumper and a penchant to score. Paxson already had a point guard and needed a frontcourt scorer. And in case you haven't guessed, I'm saying Rose is overrated. I won't call it a strike against Paxson yet, because so many people think Rose is still very good (despite being outplayed by a host of other PGs, including rookies).
Paxson's done some very good things also. He managed to trade away Wallace and Curry and also orchestrated a string of positive trades at last season's deadline. He drafted Ben Gordon third overall. The Bulls are also in a very good financial situation for the next two summers. Then again, he also traded Tyson Chandler for J.R. Smith and P.J. Brown, then gave Smith to the Nuggets for
But those positives don't make up for the negatives. Firing Skiles, inking bad contracts, and repeatedly passing on front court scorers - Aldridge, Pau, Boozer, and even Beasley - are the benchmarks of Paxson's reign. If you're looking for a change in Chicago, don't point at the guy that took the Bulls back to the playoffs in his first season. Look no further than John Paxson.
Duncan's At His Best
by Cory Elfrink
Posted 12/17/2009 11:53 AM
With a road victory last night against the Warriors, the Spurs stand at 13-10. Remarkably, since joining the Spurs in 1997, Tim Duncan has never been on a team with a worse record through 23 games in his NBA career (it should be pointed out that two of his previous teams matched the 13-10 mark). The Spurs were expected to be among the top five elite teams in the league this season, but things have not gone according to plan. And while there are endless targets to blame for their struggles, don't point your finger at Duncan. In fact, Duncan may be having his best season yet.
Now there are two very good reasons why that statement could initially be perceived as absurd. First, he's playing the least minutes of his career at 32.1 minutes per game. Secondly, the Spurs simply are not registering W's at the pace we've become accustom to seeing.
But is this sure-fire Hall-of-Famer doing his best work yet at the age of 33? Obviously, that's a bold statement. He has already shown up on some lists as the best player of the decade. He has been to ten straight All-Star games and won four NBA championships. He's a two-time MVP and three-time Finals MVP.
Yet, Duncan is averaging more points per game than in any season since 2003-04 (despite the dip in minutes). His 55.4 field goal percentage is the best of his career, and his 76.6 free-throw percentage is his second best mark. The latter number is up 7.5 percentage points from last season. He's blocking 2.1 shots per game, just the second time since 2004-05 he's exceeded 2.0 bpg. Finally, his 2.0 turnovers per game is the second lowest mark of his career, down from his 2.8 career average.
Add all this together, and Tim Duncan is producing the highest Player Efficiency Rating of his career. In fact, his PER ranks second in the entire league, just behind LeBron James.
Where would the Spurs be without him? Well, I doubt they would have beaten the Warriors last night. Dunc had 27 points, 15 rebounds, four assists, and four blocks in the 12-point win. Tony Parker's numbers are down substantially, except for his turnovers which are a career high. Manu Ginobili is shooting under 40 percent and the Spurs have actually gone 4-1 without him as his scoring has dropped more than six points per game from two seasons ago. Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess were both imported to strengthen the starting lineup, but both are currently posting the worst PERs of their careers (with exception to RJ's rookie season) as they have struggled to adjust to Spurs basketball. And though Michael Finley has only appeared in 17 games, he too is posting the lowest PER of his career.
Prior to the season, I projected the Celtics over the Spurs in the NBA Finals. While the Celts hold the best record in the league, the Spurs currently come in at seventh in the Western Conference (11th overall). Yet, I stick by my prediction, mostly due to the Big Fundamental. He's good enough to carry the Spurs while everyone else gets caught up to speed. Slow starts are nothing new for the Spurs, but look at how they finish. This decade, Duncan's Spurs are 208-73 after the All-Star break. That's a .740 winning percentage.
This Spurs team is better than what we've seen this season and their finish will back that up. But despite the team's struggles, the shine has not worn off the star. We've never seen a more efficient Duncan.
Now there are two very good reasons why that statement could initially be perceived as absurd. First, he's playing the least minutes of his career at 32.1 minutes per game. Secondly, the Spurs simply are not registering W's at the pace we've become accustom to seeing.
But is this sure-fire Hall-of-Famer doing his best work yet at the age of 33? Obviously, that's a bold statement. He has already shown up on some lists as the best player of the decade. He has been to ten straight All-Star games and won four NBA championships. He's a two-time MVP and three-time Finals MVP.
Yet, Duncan is averaging more points per game than in any season since 2003-04 (despite the dip in minutes). His 55.4 field goal percentage is the best of his career, and his 76.6 free-throw percentage is his second best mark. The latter number is up 7.5 percentage points from last season. He's blocking 2.1 shots per game, just the second time since 2004-05 he's exceeded 2.0 bpg. Finally, his 2.0 turnovers per game is the second lowest mark of his career, down from his 2.8 career average.
Add all this together, and Tim Duncan is producing the highest Player Efficiency Rating of his career. In fact, his PER ranks second in the entire league, just behind LeBron James.
Where would the Spurs be without him? Well, I doubt they would have beaten the Warriors last night. Dunc had 27 points, 15 rebounds, four assists, and four blocks in the 12-point win. Tony Parker's numbers are down substantially, except for his turnovers which are a career high. Manu Ginobili is shooting under 40 percent and the Spurs have actually gone 4-1 without him as his scoring has dropped more than six points per game from two seasons ago. Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess were both imported to strengthen the starting lineup, but both are currently posting the worst PERs of their careers (with exception to RJ's rookie season) as they have struggled to adjust to Spurs basketball. And though Michael Finley has only appeared in 17 games, he too is posting the lowest PER of his career.
Prior to the season, I projected the Celtics over the Spurs in the NBA Finals. While the Celts hold the best record in the league, the Spurs currently come in at seventh in the Western Conference (11th overall). Yet, I stick by my prediction, mostly due to the Big Fundamental. He's good enough to carry the Spurs while everyone else gets caught up to speed. Slow starts are nothing new for the Spurs, but look at how they finish. This decade, Duncan's Spurs are 208-73 after the All-Star break. That's a .740 winning percentage.
This Spurs team is better than what we've seen this season and their finish will back that up. But despite the team's struggles, the shine has not worn off the star. We've never seen a more efficient Duncan.
Surpassing Expectations
by Cory Elfrink
Posted 12/9/2009 3:37 PM
Remember a few months back when not only bloggers and analysts were telling us this may be the worst NBA draft class since 2000, but so were "NBA executives" from all over the league? Aside from Blake Griffin, people generally acted as if there wasn't another single player who would be any more than a spot starter. I said all along that I liked this class a lot more than most, and I think now is a good time to give the group its early-season props. And, oh yeah, Griffin and Ricky Rubio haven't even played yet.
Tyreke Evans is king. No one could have possibly foreseen the Kings winning nine of their first 20 games, and going 8-7 without Kevin Martin in their starting lineup. Evans is averaging 20.2 points, 5.1 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.4 steals while shooting solid percentages from the field. The only other players averaging 20, 5, and 5 this season? LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. The only rookies to accomplish those averages? Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and James. Oh yeah, Evans is getting more steals than 'Bron and shooting better than Wade. Not only is he leading for Rookie of the Year, but he is currently deserving the All-Decade All-Rookie team, which is saying a lot.
Brandon Jennings is drawing comparisons to Allen Iverson. Seriously! No, I don't think he's at that level, but we could legitimately be looking at a 20-point, 10-assist player in the future if the Bucks ever put some good healthy shooters around him. 20 games into his rookie season, this No. 10 overall pick who was described as raw with a poor shot, is averaging 21.5 points, 5.8 assists, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.1 steals while hitting 43 percent of his three-pointers. Production wise, Jennings has been an all-star and the Bucks are 9-11 and in second place in the Central Division - after finishing 34-48 a year ago and losing the majority of their scorers over the past summer.
But other rookies are exceeding expectations as well. In the six games that James Harden has logged at least 25 minutes for the Thunder, he's averaging 18.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.5 threes, and 1.8 steals. If he can surpass defensive stopper Thabo Sefolosha for a starting gig, we're discussing a fantasy monster. DeMar DeRozan has started every game for the Raptors and has come on strong of late, scoring in double digits in six of his last eight. Jonny Flynn has also started every game up in Minnesota. His assists are climbing in a hurry and he's already averaging 14.1 points, or more than Rajon Rondo, Jose Calderon, Mike Bibby, and Jason Kidd among others. Rookies Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, Rodrigue Beaubois, and Toney Douglas have all done admirable jobs as backup point guards and Stephen Curry has averaged 11.7 points, 5.4 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.7 steals in 11 starts for the Warriors. For the Jazz, undrafted Wesley Matthews has filled in as a starter for 12 games in which his team has gone 9-3 while Chase Budinger and Marcus Thornton have showed serious scoring ability for the Rockets and Hornets, respectively.
Among forwards, DeJuan Blair has done an exceptional job off of the Spurs bench and per 36 minutes he is averaging 15.0 points, 13.2 points, and 1.6 blocks on 60 percent shooting. Jonas Jerebko and Taj Gibson have combined to make 32 starts between them, and Omri Casspi has been a critical ingredient to the Kings' success early in the season.
Although we're only 25 percent of the way through the season, those who called this class "weak" need to start taking notice. Arguably the two best players in the draft, Griffin and Rubio, haven't even suited up yet and still we have two rookies who are leading overachieving teams and producing numbers worthy of all-star consideration. This class is deep, this class is good, and this class is fun.
Tyreke Evans is king. No one could have possibly foreseen the Kings winning nine of their first 20 games, and going 8-7 without Kevin Martin in their starting lineup. Evans is averaging 20.2 points, 5.1 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.4 steals while shooting solid percentages from the field. The only other players averaging 20, 5, and 5 this season? LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. The only rookies to accomplish those averages? Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and James. Oh yeah, Evans is getting more steals than 'Bron and shooting better than Wade. Not only is he leading for Rookie of the Year, but he is currently deserving the All-Decade All-Rookie team, which is saying a lot.
Brandon Jennings is drawing comparisons to Allen Iverson. Seriously! No, I don't think he's at that level, but we could legitimately be looking at a 20-point, 10-assist player in the future if the Bucks ever put some good healthy shooters around him. 20 games into his rookie season, this No. 10 overall pick who was described as raw with a poor shot, is averaging 21.5 points, 5.8 assists, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.1 steals while hitting 43 percent of his three-pointers. Production wise, Jennings has been an all-star and the Bucks are 9-11 and in second place in the Central Division - after finishing 34-48 a year ago and losing the majority of their scorers over the past summer.
But other rookies are exceeding expectations as well. In the six games that James Harden has logged at least 25 minutes for the Thunder, he's averaging 18.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.5 threes, and 1.8 steals. If he can surpass defensive stopper Thabo Sefolosha for a starting gig, we're discussing a fantasy monster. DeMar DeRozan has started every game for the Raptors and has come on strong of late, scoring in double digits in six of his last eight. Jonny Flynn has also started every game up in Minnesota. His assists are climbing in a hurry and he's already averaging 14.1 points, or more than Rajon Rondo, Jose Calderon, Mike Bibby, and Jason Kidd among others. Rookies Ty Lawson, Darren Collison, Rodrigue Beaubois, and Toney Douglas have all done admirable jobs as backup point guards and Stephen Curry has averaged 11.7 points, 5.4 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.7 steals in 11 starts for the Warriors. For the Jazz, undrafted Wesley Matthews has filled in as a starter for 12 games in which his team has gone 9-3 while Chase Budinger and Marcus Thornton have showed serious scoring ability for the Rockets and Hornets, respectively.
Among forwards, DeJuan Blair has done an exceptional job off of the Spurs bench and per 36 minutes he is averaging 15.0 points, 13.2 points, and 1.6 blocks on 60 percent shooting. Jonas Jerebko and Taj Gibson have combined to make 32 starts between them, and Omri Casspi has been a critical ingredient to the Kings' success early in the season.
Although we're only 25 percent of the way through the season, those who called this class "weak" need to start taking notice. Arguably the two best players in the draft, Griffin and Rubio, haven't even suited up yet and still we have two rookies who are leading overachieving teams and producing numbers worthy of all-star consideration. This class is deep, this class is good, and this class is fun.
TSN Top 50
by Cory Elfrink
Posted 12/4/2009 2:40 PM
The Sporting News released it's annual "NBA's Top 50 Players" list yesterday which attempts to rank the most valuable players in the game. The list is made by a collective of 107 panelists which includes Hall of Famers, executives, current players, coaches, and "other basketball experts" (nobody asked me). Kobe Bryant was the clear-cut No. 1 ranked player with 64 first-place votes. LeBron James ranked second with 34 first-place votes and Dwyane Wade collected the remaining 11 top votes.
I think the panel got the top three right as I have no real arguments with Kobe-one, LeBron-two, Dwyane-three. After that, though, I had some issues.
Starting with the fourth ranked player, Dwight Howard. Howard's a beast. He led his talented squad to an NBA Finals last season and was named the Defensive Player of the Year after leading the league in blocks and rebounds. But Howard's game remains unrefined and ranking him fourth overall is too high. I agree that he belongs in the Top 10, but not the top 5.
The remainder of the top 10 was: (5) Tim Duncan, (6) Chris Paul, (7) Kevin Garnett, (8) Dirk Nowitzki, (9) Carmelo Anthony, (10) Paul Pierce.
Other misses
(8) Dirk Nowitzki - I have to put Dirk in my the top 5 (along with Paul). He's currently working on his second MVP, along with Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. Yes, I think we have a repeat winner this season. He has been the best player on a 50-win team each year this decade and is continuously finding new ways to win.
(16) Shaquille O'Neal - There's no doubt in my mind that Shaq is one of the top 12 players to ever lace 'em up, but he's no longer a reliable positive contributor. That's a must-have quality for this list. His career matches up with anyone's on this list, but right now he does not belong in the top 50.
(17) Pau Gasol - It's probably due to the fact that he plays in Kobe Bryant's shadow, but Gasol is one of the top big men in the league. He can do absolutely everything and his basketball IQ ranks with the best in the league. He replaces Paul Pierce in my top 10.
(21) Kevin Durant - I understand that he's just 21 and never been to the playoffs, but Durant is a superstar who should be much higher on this list. He's been an elite scorer since entering the league three seasons ago, and could be in next year's top 10.
(22) Manu Ginobili - What Manu did from 2002 thru the summer of 2008, mostly as a reserve, was incredible. However, he just doesn't have that game anymore - on either end of the floor. I think he could still possibly be the difference in a playoff series, but that's an admittedly optimistic viewpoint. He probably belongs somewhere in the top 50, but it's near the bottom.
(24) Tracy McGrady - This is absurd. He has no business being in the top 50. None.
(26) Derrick Rose - You could make a case that Rose isn't even among the top 10 in his own draft class at this point. He won Rookie of the Year because his team won considerably more than the Grizzlies, Nets, and Clippers, but those teams wouldn't have won any more with Rose. Rose has a lot left to prove before he makes it in my top 50.
(28) Gilbert Arenas - Really? Not only did he start just 10 games in the past two seasons (!) but he's been a cancer for the Wizards this season. Flip Saunders has found that out as well. Earl Boykins is playing twice as many fourth quarter minutes as Arenas since joining the team. Arenas isn't in my top 50. Not even close.
(29) Ron Artest - I was shocked to see him this high. I got plenty of respect for Artest the player, but this list seems to take "the teammate" side into the equation. A focused Artest is an intimidating force, but he makes too many stupid mistakes and disappears in too many games. That sort of player doesn't belong on this list in my opinion. To me, Lamar Odom (who ranks No. 43 on this list) is a better player than Artest.
(31) Danny Granger - The Pacers will have to make the playoffs before Granger gets the proper respect his game deserves. In fantasy, he's a stat-stuffing superstud and in real life he's at least a top 20 player.
(32) Baron Davis - Davis is much like Artest in my mind. His teams have been talented but he's only made the playoffs once in the past five seasons. He's always hurt and always shooting low percentages thanks to selfish, foolish shot selection. He probably doesn't make my top 50.
(33) Devin Harris - Harris is perpetually dressed in a nice suit on the bench and he hasn't proved enough to me to make the top 40, maybe not the top 50.
(34) Ben Gordon - Gordon's style of play is also detrimental to his team more times than not. He can rain threes and score in bunches with the best of them, but his lack of defense, passing, and consistent effort coupled with his me-first style of play doesn't get him into my top 40, and barely in the top 50.
(35) Al Horford - I like Horford, but I was shocked to see the undersized center land on this list. He regressed some in his second season, and although he's playing his best basketball this season, he's got a lot more to prove before he gets mentioned in the top 50.
(36) Carlos Boozer - Like Davis and Harris, Boozer has been injured too often, but at least when he's healthy he can consistently win games. He's got one of the best offensive post games in the game today and also avoids the foolish mistake. I rank Booze higher.
(38) Rajon Rondo - The Big Three get a lot of the love and they also deserve a lot of the credit for the player that Rondo has developed into, but the player he is today ranks in the top 30. To me, he's more important to the Celtics' success than Ray Allen (who ranks No. 27 on the list). There may not be a quicker player in the game.He consistently impacts the game in as many ways
(39) Andre Iguodala - Iguodala is a nightmare for opponents but his teammates have never lived up to their expectations. Iggy Hop does everything, including hit the big shot, defend the other team's best scorer, and run the Sixers offense. He deserves to be higher.
(40) Josh Smith - In terms of "basketball player", Smith gets consideration among the top 25. However, he has exhibited the same characteristics as Artest, although he has improved his focus dramatically this season. We'll see if he can keep it up, and I suppose all things considered, No. 40 is about right.
(45) Elton Brand - Brand has not been good since May of 2007 and that's simply too long to still get consideration on this list.
(46) Richard Jefferson - Jefferson's rarely been anything more than a scorer, and he's not been an elite one at that. His defense and rebounding are both below average. No way is he a top 50 player.
(49) Michael Redd - Redd's had his moments, but his teams are typically awful and his game is too one dimensional. Not to mention that his most recent knee surgery almost guarantees that he will never be a major impact player again.
The Ones Left Out
I knocked out at least 10 guys in my above analysis. Take a look at some of the players who probably should have made the cut.
Antawn Jamison - He's been so good for so long. I can't understand how he was overlooked.
David West - Despite his slow start this season, West has been a Western Conference All-Star the past two seasons and that's saying a lot for a power forward in that conference. He has been a key ingredient to the overachievement of the Hornets over the past few seasons.
Gerald Wallace - Yeah, the Bobcats don't do a whole lot of winning, but Crash would be welcomed onto any contending team. He's a younger, better version of Artest without the headaches.
Richard Hamilton - Hamilton's only played one game this season, but he's typically been a very durable player. He plays hard every night and is one of the toughest players to guard in the league. He also gets it done defensively.
Marcus Camby - The health is always an issue, but year in and year out this guy is the best defensive player in the league when 100 percent. He has been first in the league in blocks per game in three of the last five seasons, continuously ranks among the best big men for steals, and is one the game's top glass cleaners. He has good range for his size, passes well, and shoots good percentages.
Monta Ellis - Ellis has impressed ever since coming into the league out of high school. He is one of the most dynamic guards in the game and his defense is underrated.
Al Jefferson - The torn ACL set him back, but Jefferson is one of the harder working young stars in the game and he'll be back on top soon. He's had to carry the Timberwolves on his back ever since he showed up.
Jason Terry - If Ginobili ranks 22, how does Terry not make the list? He's the best sixth man in the game and one of it's best shooters.
Caron Butler - He's gotten off to a slow start this season, but there's no question that his all-around skill set is one of the most complete in the game.
David Lee - Lee led the league in double-doubles last season and has shown improvement every season
Marc Gasol - If any second-year player belongs on this list, it's M. Gasol, not Rose.
Brook Lopez - Another sophomore I rank above Rose. I understand the beat-up Nets are 0-18, but it's certainly not due to Lopez's efforts. He's already among the best offensive centers in the league, but needs some help from his teammates.
I think the panel got the top three right as I have no real arguments with Kobe-one, LeBron-two, Dwyane-three. After that, though, I had some issues.
Starting with the fourth ranked player, Dwight Howard. Howard's a beast. He led his talented squad to an NBA Finals last season and was named the Defensive Player of the Year after leading the league in blocks and rebounds. But Howard's game remains unrefined and ranking him fourth overall is too high. I agree that he belongs in the Top 10, but not the top 5.
The remainder of the top 10 was: (5) Tim Duncan, (6) Chris Paul, (7) Kevin Garnett, (8) Dirk Nowitzki, (9) Carmelo Anthony, (10) Paul Pierce.
Other misses
(8) Dirk Nowitzki - I have to put Dirk in my the top 5 (along with Paul). He's currently working on his second MVP, along with Kobe Bryant and LeBron James. Yes, I think we have a repeat winner this season. He has been the best player on a 50-win team each year this decade and is continuously finding new ways to win.
(16) Shaquille O'Neal - There's no doubt in my mind that Shaq is one of the top 12 players to ever lace 'em up, but he's no longer a reliable positive contributor. That's a must-have quality for this list. His career matches up with anyone's on this list, but right now he does not belong in the top 50.
(17) Pau Gasol - It's probably due to the fact that he plays in Kobe Bryant's shadow, but Gasol is one of the top big men in the league. He can do absolutely everything and his basketball IQ ranks with the best in the league. He replaces Paul Pierce in my top 10.
(21) Kevin Durant - I understand that he's just 21 and never been to the playoffs, but Durant is a superstar who should be much higher on this list. He's been an elite scorer since entering the league three seasons ago, and could be in next year's top 10.
(22) Manu Ginobili - What Manu did from 2002 thru the summer of 2008, mostly as a reserve, was incredible. However, he just doesn't have that game anymore - on either end of the floor. I think he could still possibly be the difference in a playoff series, but that's an admittedly optimistic viewpoint. He probably belongs somewhere in the top 50, but it's near the bottom.
(24) Tracy McGrady - This is absurd. He has no business being in the top 50. None.
(26) Derrick Rose - You could make a case that Rose isn't even among the top 10 in his own draft class at this point. He won Rookie of the Year because his team won considerably more than the Grizzlies, Nets, and Clippers, but those teams wouldn't have won any more with Rose. Rose has a lot left to prove before he makes it in my top 50.
(28) Gilbert Arenas - Really? Not only did he start just 10 games in the past two seasons (!) but he's been a cancer for the Wizards this season. Flip Saunders has found that out as well. Earl Boykins is playing twice as many fourth quarter minutes as Arenas since joining the team. Arenas isn't in my top 50. Not even close.
(29) Ron Artest - I was shocked to see him this high. I got plenty of respect for Artest the player, but this list seems to take "the teammate" side into the equation. A focused Artest is an intimidating force, but he makes too many stupid mistakes and disappears in too many games. That sort of player doesn't belong on this list in my opinion. To me, Lamar Odom (who ranks No. 43 on this list) is a better player than Artest.
(31) Danny Granger - The Pacers will have to make the playoffs before Granger gets the proper respect his game deserves. In fantasy, he's a stat-stuffing superstud and in real life he's at least a top 20 player.
(32) Baron Davis - Davis is much like Artest in my mind. His teams have been talented but he's only made the playoffs once in the past five seasons. He's always hurt and always shooting low percentages thanks to selfish, foolish shot selection. He probably doesn't make my top 50.
(33) Devin Harris - Harris is perpetually dressed in a nice suit on the bench and he hasn't proved enough to me to make the top 40, maybe not the top 50.
(34) Ben Gordon - Gordon's style of play is also detrimental to his team more times than not. He can rain threes and score in bunches with the best of them, but his lack of defense, passing, and consistent effort coupled with his me-first style of play doesn't get him into my top 40, and barely in the top 50.
(35) Al Horford - I like Horford, but I was shocked to see the undersized center land on this list. He regressed some in his second season, and although he's playing his best basketball this season, he's got a lot more to prove before he gets mentioned in the top 50.
(36) Carlos Boozer - Like Davis and Harris, Boozer has been injured too often, but at least when he's healthy he can consistently win games. He's got one of the best offensive post games in the game today and also avoids the foolish mistake. I rank Booze higher.
(38) Rajon Rondo - The Big Three get a lot of the love and they also deserve a lot of the credit for the player that Rondo has developed into, but the player he is today ranks in the top 30. To me, he's more important to the Celtics' success than Ray Allen (who ranks No. 27 on the list). There may not be a quicker player in the game.He consistently impacts the game in as many ways
(39) Andre Iguodala - Iguodala is a nightmare for opponents but his teammates have never lived up to their expectations. Iggy Hop does everything, including hit the big shot, defend the other team's best scorer, and run the Sixers offense. He deserves to be higher.
(40) Josh Smith - In terms of "basketball player", Smith gets consideration among the top 25. However, he has exhibited the same characteristics as Artest, although he has improved his focus dramatically this season. We'll see if he can keep it up, and I suppose all things considered, No. 40 is about right.
(45) Elton Brand - Brand has not been good since May of 2007 and that's simply too long to still get consideration on this list.
(46) Richard Jefferson - Jefferson's rarely been anything more than a scorer, and he's not been an elite one at that. His defense and rebounding are both below average. No way is he a top 50 player.
(49) Michael Redd - Redd's had his moments, but his teams are typically awful and his game is too one dimensional. Not to mention that his most recent knee surgery almost guarantees that he will never be a major impact player again.
The Ones Left Out
I knocked out at least 10 guys in my above analysis. Take a look at some of the players who probably should have made the cut.
Antawn Jamison - He's been so good for so long. I can't understand how he was overlooked.
David West - Despite his slow start this season, West has been a Western Conference All-Star the past two seasons and that's saying a lot for a power forward in that conference. He has been a key ingredient to the overachievement of the Hornets over the past few seasons.
Gerald Wallace - Yeah, the Bobcats don't do a whole lot of winning, but Crash would be welcomed onto any contending team. He's a younger, better version of Artest without the headaches.
Richard Hamilton - Hamilton's only played one game this season, but he's typically been a very durable player. He plays hard every night and is one of the toughest players to guard in the league. He also gets it done defensively.
Marcus Camby - The health is always an issue, but year in and year out this guy is the best defensive player in the league when 100 percent. He has been first in the league in blocks per game in three of the last five seasons, continuously ranks among the best big men for steals, and is one the game's top glass cleaners. He has good range for his size, passes well, and shoots good percentages.
Monta Ellis - Ellis has impressed ever since coming into the league out of high school. He is one of the most dynamic guards in the game and his defense is underrated.
Al Jefferson - The torn ACL set him back, but Jefferson is one of the harder working young stars in the game and he'll be back on top soon. He's had to carry the Timberwolves on his back ever since he showed up.
Jason Terry - If Ginobili ranks 22, how does Terry not make the list? He's the best sixth man in the game and one of it's best shooters.
Caron Butler - He's gotten off to a slow start this season, but there's no question that his all-around skill set is one of the most complete in the game.
David Lee - Lee led the league in double-doubles last season and has shown improvement every season
Marc Gasol - If any second-year player belongs on this list, it's M. Gasol, not Rose.
Brook Lopez - Another sophomore I rank above Rose. I understand the beat-up Nets are 0-18, but it's certainly not due to Lopez's efforts. He's already among the best offensive centers in the league, but needs some help from his teammates.
Atlantic Despair
by Cory Elfrink
Posted 12/3/2009 3:39 PM
Just about anywhere you look for NBA standings lists the Atlantic Division at the top of the chart. That's unfortunate more this season than perhaps any other due to some atrocious play outside of the Boston Celtics. While the C's are cruising along as well as expected at 14-4, the other four teams in the division have a combined 16-60 record.
Between the Nets, Knicks, 76ers, and Raptors, the Atlantic Division boasts four of the worst six records in the entire league. The Nets, 76ers, and Raptors have lost a combined 31 in a row. Will things get better anytime soon?
New Jersey Nets (0-18)
Current State: The Nets appear to be the worst of this bunch, already losing twice to the Sixers and once to the Knicks. Of course, at 0-18, they are off to the worst start in NBA history. Yet, they have been hit harder than anyone else by injuries and trail the Sixers by just four and a half games for third place in the division. Once healthy, I think they have a very good chance of winning 20 games or more this season. They've only played seven home games. Their biggest obstacle is the fact that opponents are giving their best efforts because they dread being the first team that the Nets beat. But they've got a nice core of young talent and that should develop as the season progresses. Remember, the Oklahoma City Thunder were 4-30 on January 2nd of this year and things have turned around dramatically for them.
Assets: Tons of 2010 cap space; six rotation players locked into cheap rookie contracts; Devin Harris signed long term at a reasonable price; Brook Lopez developing into one of the better seven-footers in the game; potential new owner willing to spend big; potential new arena in Brooklyn.
Liabilities: No true coach; stigma of their current record; potential loss of new owner and new arena if looming deadlines are not fulfilled.
What to do: Get a firm commitment on the new arena solidified by the end of this month at all costs; get the players to take their mind off the record and focused on taking baby steps to improve; be smart with the free agent dollars, and don't just sign guys to spend money; Amar'e Stoudemire may be the only max free agent that would consider the Nets; Other free agents they may target are Carlos Boozer, Al Harrington, and Rudy Gay; get the lottery pick right.
New York Knicks (4-15)
Current State: The Knicks defeated the Suns in a spirited effort on Tuesday, giving them their only win of their past seven games. Mike D'Antoni and GM Donnie Walsh remain resolute in developing the proper pieces to lure LeBron James or another top free agent to New York next summer. For instance, Nate Robinson was benched in last night's loss despite having led the team in scoring three times in their previous five games. However, their leading scorer (Al Harrington), leading rebounder (David Lee), and assist leader (Chris Duhon) are all set to be free agents next season. Unlike the 76ers and Raptors, the Knicks had very mild expectations for this season. No one really expected them to make the playoffs, but what makes that pill very difficult to swallow is that the Utah Jazz own their first round draft pick next summer. If they keep the roster as it is currently constituted, I believe that they have the best chance of reaching the playoffs of these four teams, mostly due to their coach and that they have no draft pick to lose for.
Assets: 2010 cap space; Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Toney Douglas, and Jordan Hill locked into cheap rookie contracts; one of the top "player coaches" in D'Antoni; one of the most desirable markets to play in.
Liabilities: Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries will make over $18 million next season; only six players currently signed for next season.
What to do: Stick with the plan. Part of that plan should be acquiring a first-round pick next summer, which may mean they have to give up a talented expiring contract (Lee, Harrington, Hughes, Duhon). If they can throw in either Curry or Jeffries in the deal, it would be a big victory. Either way, have a Plan A, B, C, and D for next summer's free agent sweepstakes.
Philadlphia 76ers (5-14)
Current State: The Sixers have lost eight in a row and are now turning to a familiar face in Allen Iverson for help. He makes his debut on Monday and many have asked whether he can get the team to the playoffs. In the Eastern Conference, that's basically asking if they can go 36-27 the rest of the way. That's not inconceivable if they could go on a similar run as they did last year when they won 14 of 18 prior to the all-star break. The problem is that the 76ers already had chemistry issues and a yet-to-be-determined player rotation. Winning solves a lot of problems, but that may be tough to do anytime soon. Iverson and the Sixers will play the Nuggets, Rockets, Cavaliers, and Celtics in four of their first six games together and set out on a six-game road trip starting December 22. How big is the chip on Iverson's shoulder? We're about to find out. Coach Eddie Jordan certainly has his hands full. My guess is the Sixers win 35 games this season.
Assets: Louis Williams is locked up for cheap through 2012-13; Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Jrue Holiday, and Jason Smith are locked into rookie contracts for a few more seasons; Andre Iguodala is an All-Most Star.
Liabilities: No 2010 cap space; Elton Brand will make $66 million over the next four seasons; Samuel Dalembert will make $23.5 million over the next two seasons; arena is currently averaging the most empty seats per game.
What to do: Signing Iverson was a good move to re-ignite the fan base, but wins will be tough to come by soon; roster is pretty much set for next season, meaning two appearances in the lottery are likely; they've tried to trade Dalembert for a year, but won't be able to unless they part ways with Speights or Young in the deal.
Toronto Raptors (7-13)
Current State: After offseason additions of Hedo Turkoglu, Jarrett Jack, rookie DeMar DeRozan, and a host of role players, the Raptors are off to their worst start since 2005-06 when they finished 27-55. With former coach Sam Mitchell sitting courtside last night, the Raps got blasted 146-115 by the Hawks. Afterwards, Chris Bosh summed up the season thus far: "We didn't magically appear last on the charts defensively. Our defensive effort hasn't been there for awhile. We got to be honest with ourselves. Tonight was just an embarrassment. We couldn't stop anybody. We haven't stopped anybody all year...We're just not a good team...If we did care we wouldn't have given up 145 points." Jay Triano took over the coaching duties from Mitchell last season and has gone 32-53 with Bosh and the Raps since then. They've currently lost five straight. With Triano in charge, there's no way this team sniffs the playoffs, and they might as well start shopping Chris Bosh now before they lose him to free agency next summer.
Assets: Every team wants Chris Bosh; Andrea Bargnani is 24 and developing well; roster filled with skilled role players.
Liabilities: Little 2010 cap space even if Bosh leaves; giving Turkoglu five years and $53 million was a mistake; Jay Triano is the worst coach in the league; not many players want to move to Toronto; Bosh seems unlikely to return next season.
What to do: Fire Triano. Explore trade options for Bosh. They need more rookie contracts on this team, so it's imperative to land a first rounder in return. Moving Bosh allows Bargnani to play his natural power forward position now, and the team should target a center in return, one signed beyond next season. Guys like Joakim Noah, Andrew Bogut, Kendrick Perkins, and Mehmet Okur are some guys to consider.
The Atlantic Division is ugly, and it actually looks as if the Nets may be best aligned for a successful future (IF they can complete the arena tasks at hand). This division could seriously use a dose of 2010 free agents, not to mention some courses in how to be a successful general manager.
Between the Nets, Knicks, 76ers, and Raptors, the Atlantic Division boasts four of the worst six records in the entire league. The Nets, 76ers, and Raptors have lost a combined 31 in a row. Will things get better anytime soon?
New Jersey Nets (0-18)
Current State: The Nets appear to be the worst of this bunch, already losing twice to the Sixers and once to the Knicks. Of course, at 0-18, they are off to the worst start in NBA history. Yet, they have been hit harder than anyone else by injuries and trail the Sixers by just four and a half games for third place in the division. Once healthy, I think they have a very good chance of winning 20 games or more this season. They've only played seven home games. Their biggest obstacle is the fact that opponents are giving their best efforts because they dread being the first team that the Nets beat. But they've got a nice core of young talent and that should develop as the season progresses. Remember, the Oklahoma City Thunder were 4-30 on January 2nd of this year and things have turned around dramatically for them.
Assets: Tons of 2010 cap space; six rotation players locked into cheap rookie contracts; Devin Harris signed long term at a reasonable price; Brook Lopez developing into one of the better seven-footers in the game; potential new owner willing to spend big; potential new arena in Brooklyn.
Liabilities: No true coach; stigma of their current record; potential loss of new owner and new arena if looming deadlines are not fulfilled.
What to do: Get a firm commitment on the new arena solidified by the end of this month at all costs; get the players to take their mind off the record and focused on taking baby steps to improve; be smart with the free agent dollars, and don't just sign guys to spend money; Amar'e Stoudemire may be the only max free agent that would consider the Nets; Other free agents they may target are Carlos Boozer, Al Harrington, and Rudy Gay; get the lottery pick right.
New York Knicks (4-15)
Current State: The Knicks defeated the Suns in a spirited effort on Tuesday, giving them their only win of their past seven games. Mike D'Antoni and GM Donnie Walsh remain resolute in developing the proper pieces to lure LeBron James or another top free agent to New York next summer. For instance, Nate Robinson was benched in last night's loss despite having led the team in scoring three times in their previous five games. However, their leading scorer (Al Harrington), leading rebounder (David Lee), and assist leader (Chris Duhon) are all set to be free agents next season. Unlike the 76ers and Raptors, the Knicks had very mild expectations for this season. No one really expected them to make the playoffs, but what makes that pill very difficult to swallow is that the Utah Jazz own their first round draft pick next summer. If they keep the roster as it is currently constituted, I believe that they have the best chance of reaching the playoffs of these four teams, mostly due to their coach and that they have no draft pick to lose for.
Assets: 2010 cap space; Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Toney Douglas, and Jordan Hill locked into cheap rookie contracts; one of the top "player coaches" in D'Antoni; one of the most desirable markets to play in.
Liabilities: Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries will make over $18 million next season; only six players currently signed for next season.
What to do: Stick with the plan. Part of that plan should be acquiring a first-round pick next summer, which may mean they have to give up a talented expiring contract (Lee, Harrington, Hughes, Duhon). If they can throw in either Curry or Jeffries in the deal, it would be a big victory. Either way, have a Plan A, B, C, and D for next summer's free agent sweepstakes.
Philadlphia 76ers (5-14)
Current State: The Sixers have lost eight in a row and are now turning to a familiar face in Allen Iverson for help. He makes his debut on Monday and many have asked whether he can get the team to the playoffs. In the Eastern Conference, that's basically asking if they can go 36-27 the rest of the way. That's not inconceivable if they could go on a similar run as they did last year when they won 14 of 18 prior to the all-star break. The problem is that the 76ers already had chemistry issues and a yet-to-be-determined player rotation. Winning solves a lot of problems, but that may be tough to do anytime soon. Iverson and the Sixers will play the Nuggets, Rockets, Cavaliers, and Celtics in four of their first six games together and set out on a six-game road trip starting December 22. How big is the chip on Iverson's shoulder? We're about to find out. Coach Eddie Jordan certainly has his hands full. My guess is the Sixers win 35 games this season.
Assets: Louis Williams is locked up for cheap through 2012-13; Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Jrue Holiday, and Jason Smith are locked into rookie contracts for a few more seasons; Andre Iguodala is an All-Most Star.
Liabilities: No 2010 cap space; Elton Brand will make $66 million over the next four seasons; Samuel Dalembert will make $23.5 million over the next two seasons; arena is currently averaging the most empty seats per game.
What to do: Signing Iverson was a good move to re-ignite the fan base, but wins will be tough to come by soon; roster is pretty much set for next season, meaning two appearances in the lottery are likely; they've tried to trade Dalembert for a year, but won't be able to unless they part ways with Speights or Young in the deal.
Toronto Raptors (7-13)
Current State: After offseason additions of Hedo Turkoglu, Jarrett Jack, rookie DeMar DeRozan, and a host of role players, the Raptors are off to their worst start since 2005-06 when they finished 27-55. With former coach Sam Mitchell sitting courtside last night, the Raps got blasted 146-115 by the Hawks. Afterwards, Chris Bosh summed up the season thus far: "We didn't magically appear last on the charts defensively. Our defensive effort hasn't been there for awhile. We got to be honest with ourselves. Tonight was just an embarrassment. We couldn't stop anybody. We haven't stopped anybody all year...We're just not a good team...If we did care we wouldn't have given up 145 points." Jay Triano took over the coaching duties from Mitchell last season and has gone 32-53 with Bosh and the Raps since then. They've currently lost five straight. With Triano in charge, there's no way this team sniffs the playoffs, and they might as well start shopping Chris Bosh now before they lose him to free agency next summer.
Assets: Every team wants Chris Bosh; Andrea Bargnani is 24 and developing well; roster filled with skilled role players.
Liabilities: Little 2010 cap space even if Bosh leaves; giving Turkoglu five years and $53 million was a mistake; Jay Triano is the worst coach in the league; not many players want to move to Toronto; Bosh seems unlikely to return next season.
What to do: Fire Triano. Explore trade options for Bosh. They need more rookie contracts on this team, so it's imperative to land a first rounder in return. Moving Bosh allows Bargnani to play his natural power forward position now, and the team should target a center in return, one signed beyond next season. Guys like Joakim Noah, Andrew Bogut, Kendrick Perkins, and Mehmet Okur are some guys to consider.
The Atlantic Division is ugly, and it actually looks as if the Nets may be best aligned for a successful future (IF they can complete the arena tasks at hand). This division could seriously use a dose of 2010 free agents, not to mention some courses in how to be a successful general manager.
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